When President Joe Biden clinched Pennsylvania in November 2020, it was monumental. Born in Scranton, Biden’s victory wasn’t just a personal achievement; it secured his place above the crucial 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House.
Pennsylvania: The Swing State Showdown
With 19 electoral votes—one of the highest counts—Pennsylvania is set to be a battleground once again in November 2024. This time, the stakes are even higher, with either former President Donald Trump or the new presumptive Democratic nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris, aiming to claim this crucial state.
A swing state, in straightforward terms, is one where candidates from both the Democratic and Republican parties have similar support levels. These states often hold the keys to electoral success. While states like Georgia have recently swung into this category, Pennsylvania is no stranger to its battleground status.
In 2016, Trump’s win there broke a long streak of Democratic victories. Biden’s 2020 win restored the Democratic foothold, securing a “blue wall” alongside Michigan and Wisconsin—all key states in this year’s race. As Trump tries to reclaim Pennsylvania, he faces off against Harris, who emerged as the Democratic front-runner after Biden stepped aside.
The Significance of Pennsylvania in the 2024 Presidential Race
Pennsylvania has been identified as one of the seven crucial toss-up states for the 2024 election by U.S. News. Despite Trump’s 2016 victory being a rare Republican win, Democrats have traditionally dominated the state since 1992. In fact, 10 of the last 12 presidential election winners have claimed Pennsylvania, making it a potential bellwether for the race’s outcome.
Biden’s frequent visits to Pennsylvania in 2024—including an emotional trip to his hometown of Scranton—highlight its importance. Likewise, Kamala Harris has been actively campaigning in the state, emphasizing her commitment to its voters.
Past Voting Trends in Pennsylvania
Biden’s narrow victory in 2020 was pivotal, just as Trump’s slim margin over Hillary Clinton in 2016 showcased the state’s volatility. As we look at Pennsylvania’s voting history, it’s clear this state will once again be a crucial player.
Demographics and Voter Dynamics in Pennsylvania
Pennsylvania’s demographics are telling. With 74.1% of its population identifying as non-Hispanic white, and significant Black (12.3%) and Hispanic (8.9%) populations, understanding these groups is essential for both candidates. The state has an older demographic as well, with 20% of residents aged 65 and older, exceeding the national average.
Key voter groups include:
- White working-class voters: Critical for both parties, these voters were key to Trump’s 2016 victory.
- Suburban voters: Biden made crucial gains here in 2020, particularly in the collar counties surrounding Philadelphia.
- Older voters: This demographic has historically leaned towards Trump, which could be pivotal in the upcoming election.
Key Issues for Voters in Pennsylvania
Recent polling indicates the top issues for Pennsylvania voters include:
- Economy: Approximately 40% of voters prioritise this issue.
- Protecting democracy: Nearly 25% view this as crucial.
- Immigration and abortion rights: Both issues garner over 10% of voter concern.
Polling by Emerson College echoed these sentiments, revealing that crime, health care, education, and housing affordability are also significant concerns.
Candidate Positions on Key Issues in Pennsylvania
Kamala Harris has laid out an ambitious economic plan focusing on:
- Reducing costs for working families
- Incentives for first-time homebuyers
- Caps on prescription drug costs
She positions herself as a capitalist dedicated to ensuring corporations adhere to fair practices.
Donald Trump, on the other hand, emphasises:
- Lower taxes
- Increased energy production
- Blaming the current administration for inflation
Both candidates also tackle issues such as crime and immigration, but with differing approaches. Harris advocates for comprehensive reforms, while Trump pushes for stricter enforcement.
Polling Insights for the 2024 Election
As of mid-October, a polling average from The New York Times shows Harris leading Trump by 1 percentage point in Pennsylvania. Meanwhile, a RealClearPolitics average indicates a neck-and-neck race, with both candidates around 48% support.
Final Thoughts: Pennsylvania’s Role in 2024
Pennsylvania remains a pivotal state in the 2024 election. Its diverse demographics, pressing voter concerns, and historical voting trends make it a crucial battleground. As both candidates continue to campaign, their strategies and engagement with Pennsylvania voters will ultimately shape the election outcome.
By understanding the dynamics at play, we can gain valuable insights into how this key swing state could sway the balance of power in the upcoming presidential election.
