As the war in Ukraine persists, European allies are facing a difficult reality: peace might only be achieved through negotiations that involve Ukrainian territorial concessions. While previously unthinkable, this “land-for-peace” approach is gaining traction behind closed doors, especially after Donald Trump’s election victory. With Ukrainian forces increasingly on the defensive, and the potential for U.S. funding to dwindle, European policymakers are quietly reconsidering the parameters of the conflict and what it might take to reach a settlement.
In this post, we’ll dive into the growing shift towards negotiations, what concessions could be made, and why this approach is gaining momentum despite resistance.
The Shift Toward Land-for-Peace Talks
For over two years, Ukraine has been adamant that no territory will be surrendered to Russia. However, as the war drags on, European leaders are starting to acknowledge that a settlement may require difficult compromises. The idea of territorial concessions—or land-for-peace—once regarded as taboo, is now being discussed more openly in European diplomatic circles.
Several factors are driving this shift:
- The Political Landscape: With the election of Donald Trump, who has suggested he might end the war quickly and may be open to a deal that leaves some Russian-controlled areas with Moscow, there is a sense of urgency in European capitals to prepare for the possibility of a changing U.S. stance.
- The Battlefield Situation: As Ukrainian forces struggle to regain momentum, many see peace talks as an inevitable outcome of a conflict that shows no clear end in sight.
- Dwindling Resources: There are increasing concerns about long-term U.S. funding for Ukraine and how the war’s toll on Europe’s economy might affect continued support.
The ‘Land-for-Peace’ Debate: What Does It Really Mean?
European diplomats are framing the potential for land-for-peace negotiations carefully. They argue it’s not about rewarding Russian aggression but rather ensuring Ukraine’s long-term security. As Gerard Araud, a former French ambassador to the U.S., puts it: “It’s hard to say this publicly because it risks being seen as rewarding aggression.” But the reality is that land-for-security might be the only path to a viable peace deal.
Here’s how these talks could unfold:
- Territorial Concessions: A likely scenario could involve Ukraine ceding control of contested areas such as the Donbas and Crimea in exchange for Russian guarantees of peace and security assurances from the West.
- Demarcation Lines: A ceasefire along current front lines or even a new demarcation line could serve as the starting point for negotiations. This would be a temporary measure, possibly setting the stage for further talks.
However, many diplomats are quick to acknowledge that any negotiated settlement will not be straightforward. The challenge remains in balancing Ukraine’s sovereignty with the need for a de-escalation of the conflict.
The Urgency Behind the Shift: Trump’s Election and the Changing U.S. Role
The U.S. election results have further complicated matters. European allies are anxious about how Trump’s foreign policy will impact the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While Trump has signalled a desire to end the war quickly, the details remain unclear. Some fear that under Trump, the U.S. may cut funding to Ukraine, which could push Kyiv towards a deal, potentially leaving some of its territory in Russian hands.
In response, European leaders are working to ensure that Ukraine has enough leverage if negotiations become a reality. French President Emmanuel Macron has stressed that Ukraine must remain in control of any talks about its future: “Nothing must be decided on Ukraine without the Ukrainians, nor on Europe without the Europeans.”
Ukraine’s Official Stance: No Compromise Without Guarantees
Ukraine’s official position remains firm: it will not compromise on its territorial integrity. Ukrainian officials continue to demand the full withdrawal of Russian forces from all Ukrainian territory, including Donbas and Crimea. This stance is supported by public opinion in Ukraine, with surveys showing that a majority of Ukrainians reject any territorial compromise.
However, there is a growing acknowledgment within Ukraine’s political circles that some form of concessions may be necessary to secure peace. According to a recent poll, 32% of Ukrainians now say they would be open to giving up some territory in exchange for peace, a significant shift from earlier in the war.
While many Ukrainians continue to oppose the idea of giving up land, the toll of prolonged conflict is shifting the narrative. As Ukrainian adviser Mykhailo Podolyak stated, pushing Ukraine into peace talks under unfavourable terms would only “encourage further attacks.”
What’s at Stake for Europe? The Leverage of Security Assurances
For Europe, the growing shift towards land-for-peace is driven by one key factor: the desire to ensure Ukraine’s long-term security. Some European countries have started suggesting that Western security guarantees could play a crucial role in any negotiated settlement. These guarantees might come in the form of:
- NATO Membership: Though Germany and the U.S. have resisted granting Ukraine NATO membership, some European leaders are open to the idea of providing security assurances in other forms, such as military support or deployment of European troops.
- Military Aid: Continued arms supplies to Ukraine would be essential to deter any future aggression, especially if Russia were to feel emboldened by a settlement.
- Troop Deployment: Some countries, particularly from Eastern Europe, are even considering sending European forces to Ukraine as a peacekeeping measure, although this remains a contentious issue.
Ultimately, any settlement will require a careful balancing act. Russia insists that Ukraine must adopt a neutral status, which would prevent it from joining NATO. European leaders are determined to prevent Russia from emerging victorious in reshaping European borders through war, yet they must contend with the realities of the battlefield.
What Does the Future Hold?
It’s clear that the future of Ukraine’s conflict will be shaped by ongoing negotiations, both public and behind closed doors. As we enter 2024, European leaders face difficult choices about how to proceed. While land-for-peace negotiations may still seem unpalatable to many, the reality is that a negotiated settlement may soon be the only option.
For now, the focus remains on strengthening Ukraine’s military position to ensure it has the leverage needed when talks eventually occur. European leaders must continue supporting Ukraine, but they must also prepare for a world where territorial concessions may be necessary for peace.
