Donald Trump’s second presidential victory has sparked divided reactions across Europe, especially in NATO’s eastern flank. While some celebrate his win, fearing a shift toward a more nationalist and populist agenda, others express deep concern over his potential policies, particularly in relation to Ukraine, NATO, and European security.
From Poland to the Baltic states, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s foreign policy has created a wave of anxiety, especially regarding his stance on NATO and the ongoing war in Ukraine. For countries like Poland—whose historical experiences with Russia are deeply ingrained in their national psyche—the stakes are higher than ever.
Let’s break down the contrasting reactions and explore why Europe is holding its breath for what a second Trump presidency might bring.
Poland’s Optimism and Concerns: A Nation Divided on Trump’s Victory
In Poland, where Trump enjoys a significant following among conservative lawmakers, his victory was met with visible excitement. Conservative members of the Polish parliament even stood and applauded his win, chanting his name in a display of support. Trump’s stance on issues like immigration and his anti-globalisation rhetoric resonate with the populist right across Central Europe.
However, for others, especially those on the more liberal side of the political spectrum, the victory stirs fear. The biggest worry? That Trump might abandon Ukraine in favour of a deal with Russia, which would be a disastrous turn of events for the region. There are also concerns about the potential reduction of U.S. military presence in Europe, which has long acted as a security guarantee for countries like Poland.
What Concerns Do Polish Leaders Have?
Poland’s leaders have long appreciated America’s military presence, which has acted as a deterrent against Russia’s expansionist ambitions. The idea that Trump might walk back this commitment has Polish officials on edge. Recently, a missile defense base was inaugurated in northern Poland, seen as a symbol of the deep cooperation between the U.S. and Poland on defense matters.
Poland’s President Andrzej Duda believes that Trump’s pro-Ukraine stance will remain intact, citing the significant U.S. investment in Ukraine’s defence. He argues, “I cannot imagine that he would allow Russia to destroy Ukraine.” However, the growing unease about Trump’s foreign policy unpredictability leaves many wondering if this commitment will last.
The Baltic States’ Fear: NATO’s Future in Question?
For the Baltic states, which lived under Soviet control during the Cold War, the spectre of Russian aggression is a constant concern. The loss of NATO protection could mean a return to a vulnerable position on Europe’s eastern edge.
The Baltics have worked tirelessly to strengthen their military presence and defence capabilities, fearing that any retreat from NATO by the U.S. could leave them exposed. The Biden administration’s policies were seen as a stabilising force, but Trump’s return to office could reverse these gains.
Michał Baranowski, managing director at the German Marshall Fund’s East division, states that Europe will have to “step up” its own security efforts, particularly if U.S. engagement in Europe wanes. “The era of security outsourcing is over,” he warns. European nations must take a more proactive role in securing their own future.
Why Does the Baltic Region Fear Trump’s Foreign Policy?
The key issue for the Baltic states is Trump’s stance on Russia. Throughout his presidency, Trump was often seen as lenient toward Russian President Vladimir Putin, a relationship that many feared could undermine Western unity in the face of Russian aggression. Trump’s possible inclination to negotiate with Russia over Ukraine poses a grave threat to the sovereignty of Eastern Europe, including the Baltic states.
In the event of a peace deal that cedes territory to Russia, these nations could find themselves caught in the fallout. The Kremlin has historically viewed the Baltics as part of its sphere of influence, and any sign of weakness from NATO could embolden Moscow to reassert its dominance over the region.
Trump’s Allies: Hungary and Slovakia Welcome the Change
While the Polish and Baltic states express concern, Hungary and Slovakia, both led by leaders with close ties to both Trump and Putin, have responded more positively. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has long been a fan of Trump’s foreign policy, particularly his nationalist rhetoric and anti-EU stance.
Orbán recently described Trump as a “man of peace,” suggesting that Trump’s approach to international relations would be beneficial for Hungary and other Central European countries. Similarly, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has expressed that Trump’s victory is a “defeat of liberal and progressive ideas,” welcoming the U.S. pullback from globalist policies.
However, their stance raises difficult questions about how far Trump is willing to go in curbing support for Ukraine, and whether his more isolationist policies could pave the way for a Russian-backed peace deal that leaves these countries in a precarious position.
The Importance of NATO and European Security
For many in Central and Eastern Europe, NATO is more than just a military alliance; it represents the security blanket that has shielded the region from Russian expansion since the end of the Cold War. The prospect of a weakened NATO or the U.S. pulling back its commitment to Europe’s defence is deeply unsettling.
In this context, Europe’s defence spending has become a key issue. As leaders like Baranowski argue, Europe must take on a larger role in securing its future, especially in the face of changing dynamics in Washington. Nations like Poland and the Baltic states have invested heavily in defense, and they may have to invest even more if the U.S. becomes less involved in European security.
Conclusion: What’s at Stake for Europe?
In summary, Trump’s victory has left Europe deeply divided. While some Eastern European leaders are hopeful that Trump’s policies will shift in their favour, especially regarding Russia and Ukraine, many fear the long-term consequences of a more isolationist America.
For countries that rely on NATO for their security, the stakes are high. If Trump follows through on his previous promises to reduce U.S. military involvement in Europe or strike a deal with Russia over Ukraine, it could have profound implications for the future of European stability.
Relevant Links for Further Reading
- NATO and Eastern Europe: Security Threats: An in-depth look at NATO’s role in Eastern European security.
- Trump’s Foreign Policy: Russia and NATO: An analysis of Trump’s stance on NATO and Russia during his first term.
- The Future of US-European Relations: Expert opinions on how the U.S. should engage with Europe in the future.
