The ongoing conflict in Gaza and the fragile ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have raised significant questions about the future of peace in the region. Despite hopes for progress, major gaps persist between Israel and Hamas on critical issues, particularly regarding the withdrawal of Israeli forces and Hamas’s role in Gaza’s future governance. As President Joe Biden pushes for renewed negotiations, the path to a lasting ceasefire remains uncertain. In this post, I’ll break down the complexities of the Gaza deal, the obstacles to a lasting peace, and the impact on the people of Gaza.
The Ceasefire and Its Challenges
The recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon raised hopes that it could pave the way for a similar agreement in Gaza. However, President Biden has acknowledged that the situation remains fraught with challenges. The reality on the ground is that Hamas and Israel are far apart on key terms.
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Hamas’s Demands: Hamas has repeatedly stated that for peace to be achieved, Israeli forces must withdraw from Gaza, displaced Palestinians must be allowed to return to their homes, and there must be a full prisoner exchange. But these demands are non-starters for Israel and its allies, including the U.S.
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Israel’s Conditions: The Israeli government is adamant about one key issue: the release of hostages held by Hamas since the October 7th assault. This remains a top priority for Israel and a significant point of leverage in any peace talks.
As Mkhaimar Abusada, a Palestinian political analyst, points out, “The gaps have not narrowed. It’s very much the same as before.” The emotional and political stakes are high, and neither side appears willing to make significant concessions in the short term.
The U.S. Role: Pushing for a Deal
In recent statements, President Biden expressed optimism that the ceasefire in Lebanon could spur renewed diplomatic efforts to achieve peace in Gaza. Over the coming days, U.S. officials are expected to make another push for a ceasefire in Gaza, working with key international players like Turkey, Egypt, and Qatar. Despite previous failures, there’s a sense of urgency to break the deadlock.
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Mediation Efforts: The U.S. has been working behind the scenes to bring together countries that have influence over the conflicting parties. One key player here is Egypt, which has historically played a mediator role between Israel and Hamas. However, as Biden and his administration are keenly aware, a mere ceasefire isn’t enough. Long-term peace requires addressing the political, humanitarian, and territorial issues that remain unresolved.
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The Hostage Situation: The return of hostages is perhaps the most contentious issue. For Hamas, hostages are a strategic bargaining chip. It’s unlikely that Hamas will release any hostages unless their conditions are met—conditions that are unacceptable to Israel.
Internal Divisions Within Israel
On the Israeli side, there’s a deep divide over how to handle the situation in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces significant pressure from his far-right coalition partners, who have called for a “total victory” over Hamas. Many of these far-right lawmakers are against any ceasefire, seeing it as a defeat. This hardline stance complicates efforts for a ceasefire or any political compromise.
Some Israeli officials, however, are advocating for negotiations with Hamas through intermediaries. The idea is to offer a limited hostage release as a step toward creating momentum for a more substantial deal. The hope is that a partial agreement could help build trust and lead to a broader ceasefire. However, with the hardliners in Netanyahu’s government, this remains a difficult path.
Hezbollah’s Role in the Larger Conflict
Hezbollah’s involvement in the region adds another layer of complexity. After the surprise assault by Hamas on October 7, Hezbollah launched attacks on Israel from Lebanon. While the recent ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah provides a temporary respite, the threat of renewed fighting looms large.
With Israeli forces now freed from fighting on the northern border, there’s a possibility that they could focus more heavily on Gaza, which might intensify the conflict there. Israel’s National Security Adviser Yaakov Amidror stated that Israeli forces could engage in a much more intensive campaign in Gaza, which could force Hamas to the negotiating table. However, such an escalation would also likely cause more suffering for Gaza’s civilian population, many of whom have already endured immense hardship.
The Human Cost: A Displaced and Suffering Population
The true cost of the conflict is borne by the people of Gaza. Ahmed al-Ras, a Gaza resident, expressed his despair, saying that seeing Lebanese civilians return to their homes after the ceasefire made him envious. In Gaza, however, displaced families like his have been forced to leave their homes multiple times due to Israeli airstrikes.
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Ongoing Strikes: Despite the Lebanon ceasefire, Israeli airstrikes continued in Gaza. On the morning of November 28, a shelter housing displaced people next to Kamal Adwan Hospital was hit by airstrikes, causing massive fires. Such attacks are a daily reality for Gaza’s 2 million residents, and they continue to take a devastating toll.
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The Impact on Civilians: The situation remains dire, with over 30 people killed in just the last 24 hours. These strikes, often targeting civilians or infrastructure like schools and hospitals, have left the population traumatised and in desperate need of international aid.
The Road Ahead: What Needs to Happen
For peace to have a chance, a number of steps need to occur:
- A Real Ceasefire: While the U.S. is pushing for a ceasefire, it must be one that is sustained and not just a temporary halt in violence.
- Addressing Humanitarian Needs: There needs to be a commitment to ensuring that humanitarian aid reaches Gaza without obstruction, and that displaced people can safely return to their homes.
- A Political Solution: Both Hamas and Israel need to acknowledge that the long-term solution isn’t just about military victory, but about building a sustainable political framework that can ensure lasting peace.
The ceasefire in Lebanon shows that peace, while difficult, is possible. But the road to a sustainable agreement in Gaza is still long and fraught with obstacles. We must continue to push for diplomatic solutions that prioritise the well-being of the people of Gaza, while addressing the complex political realities at play.
photo credit: The Australian
