The ongoing Syria conflict has once again sparked fears of a migrant crisis that could send waves of young male refugees across Europe, potentially overwhelming the United Kingdom’s border security. Nigel Farage, the leader of Reform UK, has voiced concerns that these developments could trigger an influx of migrants attempting to reach the UK. He warns that, without urgent reform, the UK may find itself struggling to cope with a repeat of the 2015 migrant surge. In this blog post, we’ll explore how the Syrian civil war could reignite migration flows to the UK, and why Farage believes leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) could be crucial for securing Britain’s borders.
The Return of Syria’s Civil War and Its Impact on Migration
Since the Syrian civil war began in 2011, millions of people have fled their homes, creating one of the most severe refugee crises in modern history. According to Farage, the renewed fighting in Syria—exacerbated by a fresh offensive in Aleppo—will only make the migration situation worse.
More than a million refugees arrived in Europe between 2015 and 2016, many of them heading toward the UK. While the European Union attempted to implement reforms to manage asylum seekers, critics argue that the EU remains ill-prepared for another wave of migrants, especially as conflict intensifies once again.
Farage’s Call for Stronger Border Controls
Nigel Farage has been vocal about the need for Britain to take back control of its borders. In an interview with The Telegraph, he argued that if the UK remains tied to the European Union’s policies and the European Convention on Human Rights, it will be unable to properly control migrant deportations. Farage states:
“We must protect ourselves from the stupidity of the EU and leave the ECHR or face yet more waves of young men coming to the UK.”
While many argue that the ECHR protects human rights, Farage claims that the convention prevents the UK from returning migrants who have failed asylum applications. For him, the solution lies in severing ties with both the EU and the ECHR.
Why the UK Must Leave the European Convention on Human Rights
Farage’s position aligns with concerns over the UK’s sovereignty in managing immigration. By leaving the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR), the UK could regain control over how it deals with migrants and refugees. Farage believes this would allow the UK to send home migrants who do not meet the country’s asylum criteria, easing the pressure on its border security.
The issue is particularly pressing with the expected increase in Syrian migrants. As the conflict in Syria worsens, people will be forced to flee once again. The UK government has already granted asylum to over 40,000 Syrians since 2014, but many fear that this will soon spike, further straining resources.
The Humanitarian Crisis and Europe’s Growing Concern
The warning signs are already there. Peter Ford, the UK’s former ambassador to Syria, predicted that the escalation of violence, particularly the recent capture of Aleppo by rebel forces, could prompt a “flood” of refugees heading for Europe.
Antonio Tajani, Italy’s foreign minister, expressed his fears that this crisis could rival the 2015 migrant surge, which saw over 693,000 migrants enter the EU. According to Tajani, if the Syrian civil war escalates further, Europe could face a migratory collapse similar to what was seen in 2015.
Migration Routes and the UK’s Border Security
In response to this growing threat, the UK has ramped up its efforts to secure its borders. The Border Security Command is at the forefront of these efforts, aimed at dismantling illegal people-smuggling networks that prey on vulnerable refugees trying to cross the Channel into Britain.
However, concerns remain about the effectiveness of current measures. In the year leading up to September 2024, 5,548 Syrians claimed asylum in the UK, many arriving via dangerous sea routes. With 99% of these claims being granted, the UK faces the challenge of managing the growing refugee population while also ensuring that it meets its humanitarian obligations.
Europe’s Disproportionate Burden: The Role of Italy and Greece
Countries like Italy and Greece bear the brunt of migrant arrivals, given their proximity to Syria and the Mediterranean. 56,000 migrants have already entered Greece in 2024 alone. The situation is particularly dire in Italy, where the government is pushing for EU negotiations with the Assad regime in hopes of facilitating the return of Syrian migrants to safe zones in Syria.
However, critics argue that this strategy is flawed, as Turkey, which hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees (around 3.2 million), is increasingly resistant to taking in more migrants. The Turkish government has already ramped up efforts to deport Syrians, making it clear that it no longer wants to bear the responsibility for Syria’s displaced population.
Can the UK Avoid Another Migrant Crisis?
The question on many minds is: can the UK avoid a repeat of the 2015 migrant crisis? Julien Barnes-Darcy, from the European Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the capture of Aleppo could further escalate tensions in Syria, creating a new wave of refugees heading for Europe.
Germany, which initially opened its borders to over a million refugees, is now grappling with a shift in public opinion, with political parties focusing on tightening immigration laws ahead of upcoming elections.
Despite these challenges, the UK government is working with international partners to tackle illegal people smuggling. However, experts agree that without stronger control over its own borders and a change in its relationship with the EU, Britain may face an even more significant challenge in the coming years.
Conclusion:
The renewed Syrian conflict has the potential to reignite the migrant crisis that Europe experienced nearly a decade ago. Nigel Farage argues that unless the UK takes decisive steps to control its borders—such as leaving the European Convention on Human Rights—it will face even more pressure from migrant waves in the future.
As the UK and Europe prepare for this eventuality, it’s crucial for policymakers to consider all options to ensure that migration is managed in a way that balances humanitarian concerns with the need for national security.
