India is on the rise, and its growing influence is reshaping the global power dynamics in ways that the United States, China, and the rest of the world must take seriously. For the past decade, much of America’s foreign policy in Asia has been focused on China and its expanding ambitions. However, it’s time to broaden that lens, because India is stepping into the spotlight as a potential third global superpower. In this post, I’ll explore how India’s rise will affect global geopolitics, what it means for the US and China, and how Washington should approach its relationship with New Delhi moving forward.
India’s Rise: A New Global Power Shift
For more than a decade, the primary concern for US foreign policy in Asia has been China’s rapid rise. Presidents Obama, Trump, and Biden all aligned their strategies to counterbalance China’s growing influence. However, what’s often overlooked is India’s rise as another major power. With a massive population, an expanding economy, and a formidable military, India is not just another regional power—it is a force that will soon demand attention on the global stage.
India’s economic growth, technological advancements, and military strengthening are setting the stage for it to challenge the current global order. But the question is: will India be a counterbalance to China, or will it also challenge the United States as a third pole in global politics?
India’s Global Influence: Independence, Expectations, and Self-Preservation
To understand India’s approach to international relations, we need to examine its foreign policy. India’s political behaviour is shaped by three core principles:
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Independence: India’s historical nonalignment policy, introduced by Jawaharlal Nehru, is a core principle that India still upholds today. Known as “strategic autonomy,” India aims to secure its interests without getting tied to any ideological bloc. It prefers to chart its own course, whether in trade, defence, or diplomatic relations.
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Expectations: India’s centuries of British colonial rule left a lasting impact on the country’s psyche. India believes it deserves a higher status on the world stage, both economically and politically, and it will not easily yield to any foreign power.
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Self-Preservation: India has to juggle a complex, diverse society. Managing its domestic challenges, from unemployment to gender imbalances, means that India’s foreign policy is often driven by the need to ensure its internal stability and security.
These traits explain why India’s actions on the global stage can be unpredictable. India’s stance on issues like the Ukraine conflict, trade, and its treatment of its diaspora demonstrate its commitment to these principles. Let’s explore a few examples.
India’s Position on Global Issues
The Ukraine Conflict: A Non-Alignment Legacy
India has resisted condemning Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. This neutrality stems from its historical ties to the Soviet Union, and its reluctance to take sides in what it sees as a geopolitical struggle between NATO and Russia. Many Indians, particularly officials, view Russia’s territorial claims as legitimate, and any hint of US influence on India’s stance would provoke strong domestic opposition.
India’s refusal to follow the West’s narrative on Ukraine highlights its desire to remain independent. It does not advocate for democracy or liberal values abroad in the same way the US or Europe might. This is something Washington must consider in its approach to India, as New Delhi does not bend easily to external pressure.
Trade and the WTO: India’s Approach to the Global South
India has often been at odds with other developing nations at international trade forums. The country has hindered many negotiations at the World Trade Organization (WTO), especially on issues like agriculture and rice exports. India’s push for more protectionist policies, such as blocking WTO discussions on agricultural subsidies, reflects its focus on national self-interest. This approach is not always aligned with the broader interests of the global South, a group India claims to lead.
India’s actions at the WTO are just one example of how it prioritises its own national objectives, often to the frustration of other nations. While this may not directly challenge the US, it demonstrates India’s independent path—one that will inevitably clash with existing global institutions at times.
Canada-India Crisis: A Case Study of India’s Independence
Perhaps no recent event has better illustrated India’s foreign policy approach than the crisis between India and Canada. In September 2023, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau accused India of assassinating a Sikh Canadian citizen, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, in British Columbia. The tensions escalated when India expelled Canadian diplomats, and Canada responded by expelling Indian diplomats. These events highlight India’s willingness to act unilaterally, even if it risks upsetting its international partners.
While critics may point to this as an example of illiberalism under Narendra Modi, the reality is that India has always been willing to use extreme measures to protect its interests, particularly regarding separatist movements. New Delhi is focused on maintaining domestic stability, even if it means violating international norms.
India in a Tripolar World: Uncertainty Ahead
India’s rise as a potential superpower could create a “tripolar” world, with India, China, and the US each vying for influence. But unlike China, which aims to reshape the global order in its image, India is more focused on asserting its independence and preserving its own interests. A tripolar world, especially one with India as a significant player, will introduce a level of instability and uncertainty that we haven’t seen since the Cold War era.
India’s stance on issues like Taiwan, trade, and regional security will determine its role in this new geopolitical landscape. While it shares some strategic interests with the US, such as countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, India is not afraid to go its own way. The US, while keen on engaging with India, must be prepared for a more unpredictable partner—one that will not always align with American interests.
A Balanced US Strategy: Cooperation, But with Caution
The United States must balance cooperation with India while acknowledging the complexity of its foreign policy. Here’s how Washington can navigate this relationship:
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Support India’s Economic Growth: India is a massive market, and the US can benefit from deeper economic ties. The US should continue investing in sectors like semiconductors and technology while ensuring coordinated approaches on issues like export controls.
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Strengthen Defence Cooperation: India is a key partner in the Indo-Pacific, and the US should continue its efforts to deepen defence ties. However, Washington must be mindful of India’s autonomy in decision-making, especially during crises involving China or other regional powers.
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Tackle Intellectual Property Concerns: India is on the US’s intellectual property watchlist, and both nations need to address issues of patent protection and technology transfers. A robust IP regime will benefit both parties in the long run.
India’s rise is inevitable, and the US must prepare for a world where India is a significant player. However, Washington must approach this relationship with both optimism and caution, recognising India’s independence and self-preservation instincts.
Relevant Links for Further Reading
- India’s Foreign Policy Strategy
- US-India Relations in the Indo-Pacific
- The Rise of India: A Global Power
- India’s Trade and WTO Strategy
- India’s National Interests and Global Policies
Photo credit: The Daily Guardian
