Turkey has recently made headlines by offering military training to the Islamist-led rebels now governing Syria. This offer represents a significant shift in Turkey’s foreign policy and engagement with the new Syrian authorities. Amid growing uncertainty over Russia’s role in Syria and shifting international dynamics, Turkey’s involvement in the country’s future seems to be intensifying.
In this post, we’ll explore why Turkey’s decision to provide military support to the Syrian rebels matters and how it could reshape the future of the region. We’ll also look at the broader geopolitical consequences of this development, including the challenges it poses to the Kurdish-led region and its international implications.
Turkey’s Support to Syrian Rebels: What’s Behind It?
In a recent statement, Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler confirmed that Turkey would offer military training to the Syrian rebels if the new administration requests it. This support aims to help the rebel government transition from an insurgent group to a legitimate governing authority.
Guler emphasised that Turkey is willing to help if the new rebel leadership assures that it will respect governmental institutions and international organisations, such as the UN. This is a key point, as the legitimacy of the rebel government is still in question among many global actors.
The backing of Syria’s rebels by NATO member Turkey marks a significant pivot in the country’s Middle East policy, especially after the rebels succeeded in toppling the regime of President Bashar al-Assad. Turkey’s engagement with the new regime is part of a broader shift in Syria’s power dynamics, with Turkey positioning itself as a key player in the future of the country.
Turkey’s Role Amid Russia’s Uncertain Future in Syria
Turkey’s engagement with Syria comes at a time of uncertainty about Russia’s future in the region. Historically, Russia has been one of the strongest allies of the Assad regime, providing military support and diplomatic backing. However, recent developments suggest that Moscow is beginning to withdraw troops from parts of northern Syria. While the Kremlin insists that it will maintain control of vital military bases like the Tartus naval port and Hmeimim air base, there is growing speculation about Russia’s diminished role in Syria.
As Russia steps back, Turkey is stepping forward. This shift could reshape the geopolitical landscape of Syria and further complicate Western engagement in the region. Turkey’s military training offer could provide the Syrian rebels with the support needed to strengthen their position as Russia pulls back.
The Rebel Government: From Militants to Governing Authority?
The main group leading the new Syrian rebel government is Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which has historically been seen as a militant insurgency. Despite this, HTS is now attempting to transition into a more legitimate governing body, even as it remains designated as a terrorist organisation by countries such as the US and the UK.
This presents a complex challenge for Western nations. For example, the US has made direct contact with the rebels, acknowledging their importance in Syria’s future. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that Washington had reached out to HTS, signalling a shift in US policy towards engaging with rebel groups that were once considered too radical.
At the same time, Britain has signalled a potential reconsideration of HTS’s proscribed status, hinting that the group could play a larger role in Syria’s future, even though this remains legally complicated.
Kurdish Concerns: The Impact of Turkey’s Military Support
One of the major concerns regarding Turkey’s military support to the Syrian rebels is the potential impact on the Kurdish-led region in northeastern Syria. Turkey has long considered the People’s Defense Units (YPG), a Kurdish militia, as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has fought a decades-long insurgency against Turkey.
Turkey’s ongoing military operation against Kurdish-led forces, which began in December, has already sparked tensions in the Aanes region, where Kurdish-led forces have been trying to establish autonomy. Turkey’s stated goal is to “dismantle” the YPG, further escalating tensions between Turkey and the Kurdish forces.
If Turkey continues to support the rebels with military training and assistance, it could further destabilise Syria, particularly in the north. The Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which has received backing from the US, could find themselves in direct conflict with Turkish-backed forces.
Iran’s Setback and Israel’s Continued Engagement in Syria
Turkey’s support for the rebels comes at a time when Iran has suffered a major setback in Syria. With the fall of the Assad regime, Iran has lost its ability to supply its Lebanese proxy Hezbollah through Syrian land routes. Hezbollah’s leader, Naim Qassem, acknowledged that the group has lost the Syria corridor for weapons and supplies, forcing it to seek new routes for its operations.
Meanwhile, Israel’s role in Syria continues to be contentious. Israel has launched multiple airstrikes on Syrian territory, targeting military sites linked to the Assad regime and Iranian-backed groups. Israel’s Defence Minister confirmed that Israeli forces would remain stationed in the Golan Heights, which they recently seized from Syria. Despite these tensions, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has made it clear that the new rebel government does not want a conflict with Israel, preferring diplomatic solutions to ensure stability.
This complex web of alliances and rivalries in Syria highlights the multi-faceted nature of the conflict. As Turkey builds its relationship with the new Syrian authorities, it faces the challenge of balancing its relations with both Kurdish and non-Kurdish forces in the region.
What’s Next for Syria and Its Rebels?
As the situation in Syria evolves, it’s clear that the country’s future will not be determined by any single actor. The international community, including Turkey, the US, and Russia, will continue to have a major influence on how Syria stabilises—or further fractures—over the coming years.
Turkey’s military training offer to Syrian rebels represents a new chapter in the conflict. The question remains: will this lead to a more stable Syria or further complicate efforts to bring peace to the region?
Relevant Links for Further Reading
- Turkey’s Role in the Syrian Conflict
- Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham and its Evolution
- Iran and Hezbollah in Syria
- US and Kurdish Forces in Syria
Photo credit: The Telegraph
