Gaza Cease-Fire Talks: Why a Deal Remains Elusive
As international mediators push for a new round of cease-fire talks between Israel and Hamas, the chances of reaching a deal seem slim. The latest round of negotiations, set to begin on Thursday, aims to resolve the 10-month-long conflict and secure the release of around 110 hostages held in Gaza. Yet, the path to peace is fraught with complications.
The Proposed Cease-Fire Deal: What’s on the Table?
The cease-fire proposal, outlined by U.S. President Joe Biden on May 31, seeks to establish a framework for ending the war that began following Hamas’ attacks on southern Israel on October 7. The plan involves three main phases:
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Phase One: Immediate Cease-Fire
- Duration: Six weeks
- Components: A full cease-fire, withdrawal of Israeli forces from densely populated Gaza areas, and the release of some hostages. In exchange, Israel would free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, and humanitarian aid would increase.
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Phase Two: Extended Negotiations
- Components: Negotiations to include the release of all remaining hostages, including male soldiers. Israel would make a full withdrawal from Gaza, transitioning from a temporary to a permanent cease-fire.
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Phase Three: Reconstruction
- Components: Initiating a major reconstruction effort in Gaza to rebuild the war-torn region, which faces years of rebuilding.
Key Sticking Points in Cease-Fire Negotiations
Despite international efforts, the cease-fire talks have faced several obstacles:
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Concerns Over Prolonged Negotiations:
Israel worries that the initial cease-fire might be extended indefinitely if Hamas delays negotiations, potentially allowing the war to resume. -
Hamas’ Skepticism:
Hamas fears that Israel may resume hostilities once the most vulnerable hostages are returned. Recent comments from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have heightened these fears, suggesting that Israel might impose new demands during the negotiations. -
Additional Israeli Demands:
Israel has reportedly added new terms to the proposal, such as maintaining control over the Philadelphi corridor along Gaza’s border with Egypt, which Hamas views as an attempt to control smuggling routes. Israel also seeks to control an east-west route within Gaza and insists on a veto over Palestinian prisoners to be released. Hamas has rejected these additions. -
List of Hostages:
Israel’s demand for a list of living hostages has been another sticking point, with Hamas refusing to provide such information.
Additional Complications
Several factors have further complicated the cease-fire efforts:
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Recent Attacks and Assassinations:
The recent killing of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, widely attributed to Israel, has escalated tensions. This event, coupled with Israel’s assassination of a top Hezbollah commander, has drawn threats of retaliation from Iran and Hezbollah, leading to increased regional instability and a distraction from the cease-fire talks. -
Political Pressures:
Both Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and Hamas’ new leader, Yahya Sinwar, have strong incentives to continue the conflict. Netanyahu faces political pressure from his far-right coalition partners, who threaten to topple his government if he agrees to a cease-fire. Meanwhile, Hamas benefits from the international criticism directed at Israel and fears for its leadership’s safety. -
Regional Tensions:
The broader fear of a regional war involving Iran and its proxies has diverted international focus from the Gaza cease-fire, adding another layer of complexity to the negotiations.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
As the new round of Gaza cease-fire talks begins, the challenges to reaching a deal are significant. Key issues, including prolonged negotiations, additional demands from Israel, and ongoing regional tensions, continue to hinder progress. The path to peace remains uncertain, with both sides facing internal and external pressures that complicate the resolution of the conflict.
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