The ongoing war in Syria has intensified, presenting a direct challenge to Iran’s critical strategy in the Levant. This conflict is not just a local battle but an existential threat to Iran’s carefully crafted influence in the region. As one of the key players, Iran cannot afford to lose its foothold in Syria under any circumstances. But the tides of war are shifting, and Syria’s fate is now intricately tied to Iran’s regional ambitions. Let’s explore why the Syrian war is pivotal to Iran’s future in the Middle East.
The Syrian Conflict and Its Regional Implications for Iran
The recent escalation in Syria, marked by a surprise offensive by rebel groups, including the Sunni extremist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), has shocked the Syrian regime and its main allies, Iran and Russia. By November 29, these groups had seized key territories, including Aleppo and Idlib, catching the Syrian army off guard.
As the situation unfolds, it’s clear that Syria’s stability is crucial to Iran’s strategic interests in the region. The conflict has now spiraled into a broader regional crisis, with global powers weighing in and increasing the stakes for Iran. The direct threat posed to the Assad regime by the HTS, supported by a Turkish-backed group (the Syrian National Army), and Kurdish factions (Syrian Democratic Forces, or SDF), is destabilizing a delicate geopolitical balance.
Why Syria is Critical to Iran’s Regional Strategy
Iran’s involvement in Syria goes beyond mere support for the Assad regime. The Syrian territory is a critical link in Iran’s broader network of influence across the Levant, including Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen. Here’s why Syria matters so much to Iran:
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Geopolitical Link: Syria borders Lebanon, which is home to Hezbollah, Iran’s most powerful regional proxy. This geographical proximity allows Iran to arm and supply Hezbollah, cementing its deterrence capabilities against Israel.
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Military and Economic Infrastructure: Syria provides Iran with strategic access to Mediterranean ports, enabling the export of oil and circumvention of Western sanctions. Additionally, Russia’s military presence in Syria, particularly at the Tartus naval base, forms part of a Russia-Iran military alliance that challenges Western hegemony in the region.
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Regional Power Projection: For Iran, Syria is the keystone in its “Axis of Resistance” — an alliance of Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, and various Iraqi factions. Losing Syria would mean the collapse of this resistance, which is designed to counter Israeli and Western influence across the region.
The Battle for Control: A Fragile Assad Regime
While Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad has weathered many storms during the conflict, the current rebel offensive is the gravest threat to his rule in years. The surprise blitzkrieg, supported by multiple militant groups, has exposed vulnerabilities in the Syrian military. With Iran stretched thin due to its involvement in Gaza and Lebanon, and Russia preoccupied with its own battles in Ukraine, Assad’s regime is once again relying heavily on its allies.
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Iran’s Military Role: Iran has expressed unwavering support for Syria. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, met with Assad, vowing to support the Syrian government. As Iranian-backed militias regroup and strengthen their positions, Iran’s direct military involvement is likely to increase. There is even talk of Iran deploying forces to assist in the battle, which will further escalate the already volatile situation.
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Russia’s Impact: With Russian troops redeployed to Ukraine, Syria is no longer receiving the same level of support from its northern ally. Russia’s military bases in Syria are crucial for its broader Middle Eastern strategy, and if the Assad regime falls, Russia’s interests will also be severely compromised.
Turkey’s Growing Influence and Its Impact on Iran’s Strategy
Turkey’s role in the Syrian conflict cannot be understated. For years, Turkey has supported Syrian opposition groups like the Syrian National Army (SNA), which are now part of the offensive against Assad. However, the complexities of Turkish-Syrian relations have grown. Turkey seeks to control Kurdish forces operating along its southern border, seeing them as an extension of the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party), a group designated as a terrorist organisation by Turkey.
- Diplomatic Tensions: While Turkey has been reluctant to openly align with the Syrian rebels, it has still provided vital support in the form of arms, training, and safe havens for Syrian opposition groups. However, President Erdogan’s stance towards Syria has begun to shift, seeking normalisation with Damascus. This complicates Iran’s regional calculus, as Turkey and Iran have divergent interests in Syria.
The Broader Regional Context: Iran’s Struggle to Maintain Influence
The Syrian war comes at a time when Iran’s regional strategy is under increasing pressure. The Israel-Gaza war continues to dominate the geopolitical landscape, drawing attention away from Syria. Iran’s support for Hamas and Hezbollah has been severely tested, with significant losses among both groups’ leaderships.
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US and Israeli Strikes: Both Israel and the United States have actively targeted Iran’s proxies in Syria. The US military has launched airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias, while Israeli airstrikes have hit critical Iranian positions in Syria, including weapons depots and supply lines to Hezbollah. These attacks undermine Iran’s ability to maintain its influence in the region.
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Impact on Iranian Proxies: The weakening of key allies like Hezbollah and Hamas forces Iran to rethink its strategy. If Syria falls, Iran would lose its strategic foothold in the region, significantly undermining its “Axis of Resistance”.
What’s at Stake for Iran in Syria?
The stakes for Iran in Syria are incredibly high. The loss of Syria would not only dismantle its military network in the Levant but also severely disrupt its economic lifeline through oil exports. Furthermore, it would signal the collapse of its resistance network, undermining its strategic capabilities and influence in the region.
For Iran, the situation is clear: Syria must be retained at all costs. With US sanctions tightening, the Russian war in Ukraine diverting resources, and a weakened position in Lebanon, Iran cannot afford to lose Syria. This would mean the dismantling of its years of effort to control the region’s key flashpoints and disrupt Israeli security.
The Road Ahead: Iran’s Response to the Crisis
Iran is not backing down. With military support from Iraq, and possibly China, Iran is preparing for an all-out counteroffensive to preserve the Assad regime. The support from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), too, could provide the needed momentum for Iran to stabilize Syria.
The situation is still fluid, and while Syria’s stability is in jeopardy, Iran’s military and diplomatic support is unwavering. Iran has a track record of overcoming regional crises, but the latest developments in Syria could test its resolve like never before.
Conclusion: A Crucial Turning Point for Iran
The battle for Syria is not just a fight for Assad’s survival; it’s a fight for the future of Iran’s regional influence. Iran cannot afford to lose Syria. If it does, its entire strategy in the Levant could collapse. But with the help of its allies and the mobilization of resources, Iran is determined to keep its grip on Syria intact—no matter the cost.
Photo credit: Newsweek
