Ethereum (ETH) has been on a wild ride recently, beginning Q2 with a small positive bounce after one of its worst Q1 performances in recent years. At a price of $1,910 today, Ethereum faces both challenges and opportunities in the coming weeks. With the Pectra upgrade on the horizon and a significant surge in DEX trading volume, the potential for a major recovery by the end of Q2 is looking promising.
Let’s take a closer look at what’s driving Ethereum’s price forecast, including the effects of Pectra, DEX dominance, and technical indicators like resistance levels, support zones, and market trends.
Ethereum’s Strong Q2 Start: DEX Volume Dominance
Ethereum has set the stage for a possible price rebound, largely thanks to its remarkable performance in the decentralized exchange (DEX) market. According to recent data from DefiLlama, Ethereum overtook Solana in terms of trading volume in March, with $64.69 billion traded on Ethereum-based DEXs, surpassing Solana’s $52.62 billion. This marks the first time since September 2024 that Ethereum has dominated the DEX space, showing the blockchain’s growing strength.
However, it’s important to note that the overall DEX volume has been down significantly compared to earlier in the year. For example, in January, Ethereum’s DEX volume alone surpassed $86.11 billion, showing just how much the market has cooled since then. Despite this, Ethereum’s relative dominance in March shows that it could still hold considerable weight in the DEX market in the months to come, particularly as memecoin trading activity wanes and Pectra nears its launch.
Ethereum’s Performance in Q1: A Tough Start to 2025
While Ethereum’s performance in March was promising, the first quarter of 2025 has been challenging. ETH recorded a 45% decline in Q1, marking its worst quarterly performance since 2018, as per Coinglass data. This sharp drop follows a broader trend of declining crypto market activity and investor confidence, which saw Ethereum suffer from a loss of momentum amid the downturn in memecoin trading following former US President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements.
Despite these challenges, Ethereum’s technical indicators are starting to show signs of life. The bounce off the $1,800 support level and a 5% gain on Tuesday have sparked hope for a Q2 recovery, especially if Pectra delivers the expected upgrades to the network.
The Pectra Upgrade: A Catalyst for Ethereum’s Q2 Recovery?
The most anticipated event for Ethereum in Q2 is the upcoming Pectra mainnet launch, which is scheduled for April 30, 2025. Pectra promises several key improvements for Ethereum, including:
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Wallet Recovery: Enhancing user experience and security by enabling better wallet recovery mechanisms.
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Transaction Batching: Optimising transaction processes to reduce fees and increase efficiency.
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Blob Expansion: Increasing Ethereum’s scalability by allowing larger transaction data blocks.
These upgrades could boost Ethereum’s network performance, improve scalability, and enhance user experience — all of which are crucial for a potential price recovery. According to Sean Dawson, Head of Research at Derive, these features could contribute to a rebound in Ethereum’s price by the end of Q2, as interest in ETH grows with the Pectra launch.
Technical Indicators: Ethereum’s Support and Resistance Levels
While the fundamentals of Ethereum are looking strong, there are key technical indicators to keep an eye on that could influence Ethereum’s price in the short term.
Support Level at $1,800
Ethereum’s price recently bounced off the $1,800 support level, showing signs of stability and resilience at this price point. If ETH can maintain this level, it could set the stage for a recovery in the coming weeks. A solid base at $1,800 would provide the necessary support for Ethereum to break higher and overcome resistance.
Resistance Levels to Watch: $2,070 and $2,260
ETH is facing resistance at $2,070, a level it has struggled to break through in recent weeks. A sustained breakout above this resistance could signal a new bullish trend, pushing Ethereum towards $2,260 and beyond. However, if ETH fails to surpass these levels, there’s a chance it could experience another downtrend or consolidation phase.
The Role of RSI and Stochastic Oscillator
Currently, Ethereum’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is below the neutral zone, indicating weak bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the Stochastic Oscillator has remained in the oversold region since February, signalling dominant bearish momentum. For a bullish outlook to take hold, both the RSI and Stoch need to cross above their neutral levels and moving averages.
Ethereum Price Forecast: What’s Next?
While there are significant bullish signals in the market — including Pectra’s upcoming features, DEX trading volume dominance, and the bounce off support — there are still risks. Ethereum could face further downside pressure in the short term, especially with stagnating daily transactions and ETF flows. However, by the end of Q2 2025, Ethereum’s price could see a recovery as market conditions improve, and the effects of the Pectra upgrade start to be realised.
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Bearish Scenario: If Ethereum fails to hold the $1,800 support and falls below it, the next support level could be $1,500.
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Bullish Scenario: If Ethereum can break through $2,070 and then $2,260, we could see ETH begin a major uptrend, potentially targeting new all-time highs.
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