As Donald Trump prepares for his second term as U.S. president, Europe’s leaders are navigating how his policies will shape transatlantic relations and security in the coming years. At the European Political Community summit held in Budapest, around 50 European leaders gathered to discuss key issues including European defence, Russia, and the future of the NATO alliance under Trump’s leadership.
For many, the summit was an opportunity to take stock of their growing independence from Washington, particularly in light of the uncertainties surrounding Trump’s foreign policy agenda. With Europe facing persistent threats, especially from Russia, many leaders agreed that the continent must now play a larger role in its own defence. Europe’s reliance on U.S. military support, especially under Trump’s first term, has prompted a fundamental shift in thinking.
Trump’s First Term: The Call for European Self-Reliance
When Donald Trump first assumed office in 2017, one of his key foreign policy priorities was to urge European NATO allies to increase their defence spending. Trump’s blunt demands for allies to meet the NATO target of 2% of GDP in defence spending were met with mixed reactions across Europe. However, his emphasis on reducing America’s international commitments served as a wake-up call to European leaders.
Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, reflected on the need for European nations to put their own interests first. “He was elected by the American people,” Macron said of Trump, acknowledging that the U.S. president would defend American interests. However, he was clear that Europe’s focus should be on its own priorities, particularly in terms of national security. Macron’s statement underscored the sentiment that Europe can no longer afford to rely solely on Washington.
Similarly, Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s prime minister, took a firm stance, urging that Europe must take on more responsibility for its own peace and security. “We cannot wait for the Americans to protect us,” Orbán stated, echoing the general consensus among European leaders that the time has come for a more self-sufficient Europe.
A New Defence Strategy: Europe Taking Control
One of the dominant themes at the summit was the need for European defence to be significantly strengthened. NATO’s 2% GDP target for military spending, which was first championed by Trump, has now become a widely accepted goal across the continent. According to Mark Rutte, the NATO chief, Trump’s pressure on Europe to increase defence spending helped push the alliance to surpass the 2% target — even without considering U.S. contributions.
Charles Michel, President of the European Council, made it clear that Europe’s future must be shaped by a more independent approach to defence. “We have to be more masters of our destiny,” he declared, emphasising that this shift in mindset is not driven by Trump’s actions but by Europe’s future generations.
Kyriakos Mitsotakis, the Prime Minister of Greece, also noted that Europe’s growing dependence on the U.S. has led to a geopolitical naivety. The continent, he argued, must now commit additional resources to address pressing challenges — from security to economic competitiveness. He highlighted that strengthening Europe’s defence capabilities is no longer optional but essential.
Trump’s Campaign Promises: The Impact on NATO and Ukraine
During his 2024 re-election campaign, Trump made several remarks that could have significant consequences for Europe’s security and relations with Russia. One of the most concerning was his vow to end the war in Ukraine within a single day if re-elected. Many European leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, fear that such an approach might involve negotiating a peace deal with Russia that would favour President Vladimir Putin and result in territorial concessions from Ukraine.
At the summit, leaders expressed concern about how Trump might handle the Ukraine conflict, especially given the long-standing support of U.S. and European allies for Ukraine’s sovereignty. Dutch Prime Minister Dick Schoof downplayed Trump’s more extreme campaign promises, suggesting that the final policies would likely be more measured. However, the overarching worry is that any peace deal brokered by Trump could be detrimental to Ukraine and undermine European security.
European allies are now hoping that, if Trump does pursue peace negotiations, he will do so from a position of strength — one that ensures both Ukraine and Europe are safeguarded from further aggression by Russia. Mark Rutte of the Netherlands reinforced this idea, noting that the threat from Russia has global implications, not just for Europe, but also for the U.S. mainland.
The Growing Tensions: U.S.-Europe Relations in Flux
The potential shift in U.S. policy under Trump also raises questions about the future of the NATO alliance and broader U.S.-Europe relations. During his first term, Trump’s administration imposed tariffs on European steel and aluminum, citing national security concerns. The resulting trade war left a bitter taste across Europe, with retaliatory measures on American goods like bourbon, jeans, and motorcycles.
As Trump’s second term looms, the relationship between Europe and the U.S. remains fraught with uncertainties. While some European leaders, like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, have openly expressed admiration for Trump, many others are more cautious. European leaders are increasingly aware that, should the U.S. pull back its support, they may need to take greater control of their own affairs — from defence spending to foreign policy.
Political Crisis in Germany: Adding Complexity to the European Equation
Adding another layer of complexity to the situation is the political crisis in Germany, Europe’s economic powerhouse. Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently faced a crisis within his coalition government, which has now fallen apart. With a minority government now in power, the potential for early elections in Germany looms large. This political instability could affect Germany’s future role in Europe’s strategic and defence decisions, further complicating the continent’s response to Trump’s presidency and the ongoing geopolitical challenges posed by Russia.
Conclusion: Europe’s Path Forward
As Europe confronts a new reality with Trump’s return to power, it is clear that the continent must take greater responsibility for its own security and defence. The European leaders gathered in Budapest are determined to push for a stronger, more self-sufficient Europe that is less reliant on Washington. The challenges posed by Russia and the uncertainties of U.S. policy under Trump mean that European nations must now work together to secure their own future, regardless of the shifting dynamics across the Atlantic.
