The dream of supersonic flight has been a long-standing ambition of the aviation industry. For decades, we’ve been tantalised by the idea of travelling faster than sound, reducing flight times significantly, and potentially transforming global air travel. However, as we’ve seen, this dream has faced several major hurdles. In a candid interview with Business Insider, Exosonic CEO Norris Tie shared why his company’s attempt at supersonic aviation ultimately failed and offered insights into what could help other supersonic startups avoid the same fate.
Exosonic’s Rise and Fall: What Went Wrong?
Exosonic, a California-based startup, launched in 2017 with a bold mission: to develop quiet, Mach 1.8 passenger planes and uncrewed supersonic aircraft for military training. After five years of development and securing backing from private investors and a contract with the US Air Force, the company suddenly shut down in November 2022.
So, what went wrong for Exosonic?
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Lack of Funding: Despite raising around $4 million in funding, the company could not secure the billions required to bring a new supersonic aircraft to market. Building a commercial supersonic plane is capital-intensive and time-consuming, with estimates suggesting a development cost of $8 billion for a project like Boom Supersonic’s Overture jet.
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Low Customer Interest: The demand for supersonic air travel was simply not there. While the concept was intriguing, potential customers were hesitant to invest in a market that had not proven viable since the Concorde’s commercial failure in 2003.
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Regulatory Hurdles: The sonic boom — the loud, disruptive noise produced by planes flying faster than sound — remains a significant issue. While Exosonic aimed to develop a sonic boom-less jet, it was always an uphill battle to secure the necessary FAA approvals.
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Shift in Military Focus: Exosonic’s military contracts were also impacted by the shifting priorities of the US Air Force. While the company initially aimed to develop supersonic drones for fighter jet training, the Air Force’s priorities shifted towards combat-focused drones, leading to a loss of essential funding.
The Challenges of Supersonic Aviation
Exosonic’s closure isn’t the first time a supersonic aviation company has faltered, and it certainly won’t be the last. Here’s why building a supersonic airliner is so incredibly difficult:
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Time and Money: Developing a new supersonic plane isn’t like launching a regular airliner. It requires billions of dollars in investment and can take 10-15 years to design, test, and certify.
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Sonic Boom: One of the biggest barriers to supersonic flight is the sonic boom — a shockwave that creates a loud noise when the aircraft exceeds the speed of sound. Exosonic had aimed to tackle this issue, but it’s a problem that has plagued the industry since the days of the Concorde.
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Engine Technology: The engine is another critical component. Engine manufacturers have been slow to invest in supersonic technology, leaving many startups to build their own engines. This lack of collaboration with established manufacturers adds to both the cost and complexity of the projects.
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Customer Skepticism: Even if a supersonic plane can be built, will customers actually buy it? The Concorde had a very niche customer base, and even with the promise of faster travel, it couldn’t justify the high costs and maintenance involved.
The Rise of Hypersonic Flight: A Better Bet for the Future?
While supersonic flight may be a tough sell, hypersonic flight — which refers to speeds over Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound) — could offer a more viable future.
According to Tie, focusing on hypersonic travel rather than supersonic could have been a smarter move for Exosonic. Here’s why:
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A New Frontier: Hypersonic flight is an exciting new frontier. Unlike supersonic, which has been around for decades, hypersonic technology is still in its infancy, meaning there’s a lot more room for innovation and development.
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Military and Commercial Applications: Hypersonic travel has massive potential for both military applications (like rapid global strike capabilities) and commercial use, such as flights between major cities in under an hour.
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Startups Leading the Charge: A handful of startups are already working on hypersonic technologies, including companies like Venus Aerospace, Hermeus, and Spectre Aerospace. Even SpaceX’s Starship could potentially evolve into a hypersonic commercial vehicle, connecting distant cities at unimaginable speeds.
What Can Other Supersonic Startups Learn from Exosonic’s Failure?
So, what lessons can other supersonic aviation startups take away from Exosonic’s downfall?
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Secure Sufficient Funding: Raising billions is a must for any serious supersonic project. Without massive investment, it’s nearly impossible to make the leap from prototype to commercial aircraft.
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Start with Military Contracts: Government contracts, particularly military ones, can provide essential early-stage funding and credibility. However, make sure those contracts align with long-term business goals. Shifting priorities, like in Exosonic’s case, can be fatal.
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Understand Market Demand: Customer interest in supersonic flights is still niche. A viable supersonic airliner will need to prove itself as affordable, practical, and highly efficient before it can capture widespread market share. Conducting market research early is crucial.
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Tackle the Sonic Boom: The sonic boom remains a significant barrier. Until this issue is resolved, supersonic flights over land will be limited. Companies should prioritise finding a solution to this problem or risk being grounded.
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Consider Hypersonic Flight: Given the growing interest in hypersonic travel, startups might be better off redirecting their focus towards this next-generation technology. As research and investment ramp up, hypersonic flight could soon become a more commercially viable option.
What’s Next for Supersonic Aviation?
While Exosonic is no longer in the race, other companies like Boom Supersonic continue to push forward with their supersonic projects. But as Tie noted, it’s a long road ahead. With the potential for hypersonic travel on the horizon, we may very well see a shift in focus from Mach 2 to Mach 5.
Whether it’s supersonic or hypersonic, the dream of faster-than-sound flight is far from dead — but the road to commercial success will require massive investments, technical breakthroughs, and a shift in market demand.
Relevant Links for Further Reading
