The Gaza ceasefire has been a rollercoaster of diplomatic hurdles, strategic decisions, and intense negotiations. As the first phase of the truce between Israel and Hamas nears its final hours, the world is left wondering what will come next. Phase two, which should have followed smoothly, is proving to be anything but.
The ceasefire, which was initially seen as an improbable breakthrough, could mark a turning point in the ongoing conflict. However, tensions are still high, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces significant challenges in delivering on the truce’s next steps. Here’s a closer look at what the future holds, why phase two will be more complicated, and what both sides could potentially face as this volatile situation continues to unfold.
The Fragile Nature of the Gaza Ceasefire
The Gaza ceasefire started with intense international pressure. For months, Prime Minister Netanyahu resisted a formal agreement to end hostilities with Hamas, despite significant public and diplomatic pressure. The breakthrough came after both outgoing and incoming US Presidents put the weight of their administrations behind negotiations.
In exchange for 38 Israeli hostages (instead of the initially expected 33) being released over 39 days, the deal brokered by US President Joe Biden involved the release of over 1,700 Palestinian prisoners and the infusion of critical aid into Gaza. The agreement stipulated that the truce could extend as long as negotiations were ongoing, with phase two being the next key milestone.
What Comes Next for Gaza?
As we approach the final day of the first phase of the ceasefire on Saturday, the reality of the negotiations for phase two is dawning on both sides. But what will this next phase actually look like?
Phase two of the truce would see Israel withdraw its troops from Gaza and the release of all remaining hostages. This includes an estimated 24 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas. In exchange, more Palestinian prisoners would be freed.
But here’s the problem: Netanyahu has already signalled a lack of commitment to this next phase.
Netanyahu’s Reluctance: Why the Next Phase Is So Complicated
At the core of Israel’s resistance to phase two is the issue of a full withdrawal from Gaza and the broader political implications. Israel’s military has occupied Gaza for years, and the notion of retreating from the Philadelphi Corridor, a vital border region with Egypt, is contentious. The second phase of the truce calls for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza within eight days – but Netanyahu has made it clear he has no intention of following through with such a commitment.
In fact, Netanyahu delayed sending a negotiating team to Cairo, missing the critical February 3 deadline, and only agreed to send a delegation on the very last minute. Despite this, Israel’s military has indicated it will continue its operations along Gaza’s borders, even after the first phase ends, further complicating the situation.
Hamas’ Stance: What Is Their Real Goal?
While Hamas has largely abided by the terms of the ceasefire, sticking to the agreement despite some minor infractions, such as the mistaken sending of a body instead of a specific hostages’ release, key questions remain.
One of the most significant unresolved issues is whether Hamas will disarm and leave Gaza. Hamas has consistently refused to engage in discussions on this matter. Osama Hamdan, a prominent member of Hamas’ political bureau, made it clear that Hamas does not see itself as defeated. In fact, he hinted at an opportunity for the group to expand its influence, should it manage to outlast Israel’s current control.
On the other hand, a more conciliatory stance came from Husam Badran, another senior Hamas official. He stated that the group would be open to stepping aside from governing Gaza, provided it was an internal Palestinian matter, and not imposed by external forces like Israel or international powers. This contradicts Netanyahu’s vision, where Hamas has no place in Gaza’s future governance.
Netanyahu’s Plan: The Ultimate Goal for Gaza
Netanyahu’s plans for Gaza after the ceasefire remain as elusive as ever. Publicly, Netanyahu has endorsed former President Trump’s controversial plan for Gaza, which involves the potential relocation of all Palestinians from Gaza and the establishment of a completely new social and political system akin to Gulf State models. This proposal has been widely criticized, both for its humanitarian implications and for disregarding the political autonomy of the Palestinians.
Israeli leadership, particularly from Netanyahu’s extreme-right allies, has further fueled this ambiguity. They envision continued military presence in Gaza, and even the re-establishment of Jewish settlements that were evacuated two decades ago. Such a stance, however, would likely ignite even further conflict.
The United States’ Role and Global Diplomacy
The role of the United States in this peace process cannot be overstated. US Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar made it clear that the United States is committed to the release of all hostages and continues to search for alternative means to resolve the conflict. However, the possibility of an indefinite extension of the first phase, as preferred by Netanyahu, could undermine these efforts.
Both US President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, have made it clear that they want peace, but they seem to be in alignment with Netanyahu’s desire to keep phase one alive for as long as possible. For Israel, this buys time to extract more hostages from Hamas without committing to a full cessation of hostilities or troop withdrawal.
Will Hamas Accept Israel’s Terms?
Hamas has proven to be a formidable force in these negotiations, especially given its leverage over the remaining hostages. As Gershon Baskin, a former Israeli negotiator-turned-peace activist, points out, Hamas may continue to hold onto hostages as a bargaining chip. The group’s ability to draw out further concessions, particularly around its future in Gaza, will depend heavily on whether Israel is willing to make critical political concessions.
However, Hamas leaders in Gaza are not in complete agreement with their exiled counterparts. While the exiled leaders are open to the idea of resuming the war, those based in Gaza are becoming increasingly assertive about their role in the region and are less inclined to negotiate without significant shifts in political power. This growing divergence could lead to an unpredictable outcome, where both sides push the boundaries of the ceasefire.
What Lies Ahead for Gaza?
As the first phase of the ceasefire draws to an end, the immediate question is whether Hamas will agree to a further release of hostages without the commitment to end the war and withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza. The dynamics between Hamas, Israel, and the international community will play a significant role in shaping the next phase of the ceasefire, but one thing is clear: the situation is far from resolved, and any progress will be hard-won.
Conclusion: A Long Road Ahead
The coming days and weeks will be critical for Gaza. Whether a peace agreement is reached or whether the situation devolves back into conflict remains uncertain. What is certain, however, is that the road ahead will be paved with intense diplomatic struggles, shifting alliances, and a continuing fight for control over Gaza’s future. Both Israel and Hamas will need to navigate their own internal divisions, as well as the international pressure to find a lasting solution. As phase one ends, eyes will be on how each side handles the next steps.
Relevant links for further reading:
- Gaza Ceasefire Agreement
- The Role of International Diplomacy in the Gaza Conflict
- Hamas and Its Political Stance
Photo credit: The New York Times
