As Hemingway famously described bankruptcy, autocratic regimes collapse in a similar way—gradually, and then suddenly. The Syrian regime’s collapse is no different. While the signs of decline were there for years, it was only when the Syrian government’s supporters began to lose faith, and opposition forces gained momentum, that the regime crumbled.
In this post, we’ll explore the Syrian regime’s slow collapse and examine the broader implications for other autocratic regimes around the world. From Russia’s involvement in Syria to the rise of extremist groups in the region, we’ll unpack how the downfall of Bashar al-Assad mirrors the fragility of global authoritarian leadership and offers a glimmer of hope for political change.
The Gradual Decline of the Syrian Regime
The fall of the Syrian regime didn’t happen overnight. It was the culmination of years of growing doubt, economic strain, and the loss of international support. Here’s how it unfolded:
- Russian Support Waning: As Russia diverted its military and political resources towards the Ukraine war in 2022, Assad’s main backer began to shift focus, weakening the regime’s position in Syria.
- Iran’s Limited Influence: Syria has long been supported by Iran and its proxy, Hezbollah. However, Israeli strikes targeting Hezbollah’s leadership have impeded Iran’s ability to assist Assad effectively, further straining the regime’s resources.
- The Loss of Aleppo: The November 29th battle for Aleppo marked a turning point. When armed opposition groups seized control of the city, many of Assad’s loyalists lost their will to fight. The regime’s collapse accelerated, culminating in Assad’s sudden disappearance.
These signs were subtle at first, but they signaled the regime’s inevitable downfall. As the situation worsened, the reality of Assad’s inability to maintain control became clear.
The Fall of the Syrian Regime: A Sudden and Chaotic Event
When the collapse came, it was sudden and chaotic. Damascus, the heart of the regime, became a symbol of the fall of authoritarian rule. People stormed the presidential palace, and scenes of toppling statues and selfies at Assad’s palace flooded social media. The swift loss of power revealed the fragile nature of the regime.
This sudden collapse mirrors the potential future for other autocratic regimes such as those in Russia, Venezuela, and North Korea. These regimes thrive on fear and repression, but when the soldiers and police no longer fear the leadership, the foundation collapses.
The Global Network of Autocracies: Parallels to Other Regimes
The fall of the Syrian regime isn’t an isolated incident. Syria, along with Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea, represents a network of authoritarian regimes that share a mutual interest in maintaining power at all costs. Here’s how these regimes interconnect:
- Russian Influence: Russia has been instrumental in propping up the Assad regime, supplying both military support and diplomatic cover. However, the ongoing war in Ukraine has led to a shift in focus, with fewer resources available for Assad.
- Iran’s Role: As Iran’s regional power diminishes due to geopolitical tensions, its influence over Syria weakens. The Israeli attacks on Hezbollah have further isolated Assad’s regime.
- Venezuela’s Struggle: Venezuela’s catastrophic political and economic collapse offers another example of an autocratic regime teetering on the brink, with Russia and Iran playing pivotal roles in maintaining the Maduro government.
The Russian government actively collaborates with these autocracies, using military operations, information warfare, and covert actions to bolster dictatorships globally. Putin’s aim is clear: to create a world where his cruelty and impunity are normalized, and human rights are disregarded.
The Tactics of Tyranny: Torture, Disappearances, and Propaganda
What is common among these autocratic regimes? Brutality and lawlessness. Both the Syrian and Russian regimes have engaged in horrific human rights abuses, including:
- Disappearances: Since 2011, over 112,000 Syrians have vanished, with no legal justification for their arrests. Thousands more have been tortured in prison, often without any contact with the outside world.
- Chemical Weapons Attacks: Bashar al-Assad’s regime has used poison gas on its own people, later denying the attack. These crimes against humanity have only fueled global criticism but have failed to bring accountability.
- Targeted Strikes: Joint Russian-Syrian airstrikes intentionally targeted civilian infrastructure, such as hospitals, using double-tap strikes to maximize civilian casualties.
In Ukraine, Russia has employed similar tactics: abductions, torture, and deliberate targeting of civilians. These actions aim to demoralize populations and prevent any resistance to the regime’s control.
Why Brutality is Part of the Plan
The logic behind such cruel tactics is simple: hopelessness. By targeting civilians, spreading propaganda, and crushing any dissent, regimes aim to break people’s spirits. The brutality is meant to convey that the regime is unstoppable, that resistance is futile, and that the dictator’s power is eternal.
This strategy works—until it doesn’t. The cruelty that breaks a population’s will can also break the will of those tasked with enforcing it. Soldiers and police are not immune to suffering, fear, or doubt. They, too, are members of the public, and they can become insecure or question their loyalty when the regime begins to falter.
In Syria, when the people of Aleppo successfully fought back, and when Assad’s forces saw their own survival at risk, the loyalists’ support began to wane. Eventually, even the military stopped fighting, and the regime’s sudden collapse became inevitable.
What Comes Next? The Possibility of Change
While it’s too early to predict the future of Syria, the collapse of the Assad regime presents a unique opportunity. A National Transitional Government has called for reconciliation, offering hope for Syria’s future. However, the rebel factions, many with extremist ties, complicate the path forward.
Still, the fall of the Assad regime gives the world something more precious than despair: hope. If one of the world’s most entrenched autocracies can collapse, perhaps others can, too. The possibility of change in Syria could inspire similar shifts in places like Venezuela or North Korea.
Conclusion: The End of One Regime, the Beginning of Another?
The collapse of the Syrian regime is significant for more reasons than just its internal politics. It shows the world that dictatorships can fall, and that hope can emerge even from the most oppressive circumstances. While the future of Syria remains uncertain, one thing is clear: nothing lasts forever, not even the most brutal regimes.
