As Election Day approaches, the focus on Latino voters has intensified. This demographic, making up roughly one-fifth of the U.S. population and 14.7% of eligible voters, holds significant sway in the upcoming presidential race. With both Democratic nominee Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump keen to secure their support, understanding their strategies is crucial.
Why Latino Voters Matter
Latinos have the potential to be game-changers in the 2024 election. Notably, in key swing states:
- Pennsylvania: Over 570,000 Latino voters could tip the scales, especially after Trump won the state by less than 50,000 votes in 2016 and lost by about 80,000 in 2020.
- Arizona: With approximately 1.3 million Latino voters, this state saw Trump win by a narrow margin in 2016 and Biden take it by just over 10,000 votes in 2020.
Longtime GOP consultant Mike Madrid emphasizes that Latino voter numbers surpass the margins of victory in these swing states. Yet, their support is not guaranteed, as the demographic shows a “much weaker partisan anchor” compared to other racial or ethnic groups.
Trump’s Approach to Latino Outreach
Despite a history of controversial remarks, Trump is making strides among Latino voters, particularly Latino men.
- Polling Trends: Trump captured 28% of Latino votes in 2016 and 32% in 2020. Recent polls suggest he might secure around 40% in 2024.
- Economic Messaging: Trump highlights economic issues, appealing to Latino business leaders in events like his recent roundtable in Florida. He frames his administration’s 2017 tax cuts as beneficial for Latino entrepreneurs, saying, “We gave you the biggest cut in taxes in the history of the country.”
At a recent Univision town hall, Trump reiterated his focus on economic issues but also delved into immigration policy. He emphasized the importance of legal immigration, reflecting a common sentiment among many Latino voters who desire a clear rule of law.
Harris’ Strategy: Economic Focus Over Identity Politics
Kamala Harris is adopting a different approach, steering away from identity politics to concentrate on economic opportunities.
- Economic Agenda: In her recent Telemundo interview, Harris articulated her commitment to an “opportunity economy” that benefits all Americans while specifically addressing the Latino community’s needs. She highlighted her campaign’s proposals on small businesses and homeownership.
- Targeted Messaging: Harris directly addressed Latino men, contrasting Trump’s approach by stating, “Donald Trump has disrespected and insulted Latino men and communities.” She aims to resonate with voters through policies that prioritize their economic wellbeing.
Her campaign, under the leadership of first Latina general election campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez, has significantly invested in Latino outreach.
The Diverging Narratives
While both candidates aim to win over Latino voters, their narratives diverge significantly.
Trump’s Focus on Immigration
- Immigration Rhetoric: Trump continues to place immigration at the forefront of his campaign, arguing that the current administration’s policies have failed. He criticizes the Biden-Harris administration for perceived leniency, saying, “The economy is very important, but I really think that the biggest problem this country has is what they’ve allowed to happen to us on the border.”
- Advisors’ Insights: Trump’s senior adviser Carlos Trujillo notes that the media often misrepresents Latino opinions on immigration, asserting that many desire defined rules rather than blanket acceptance.
Harris’ Counter-Narrative
- Addressing Perceptions: Harris challenges the narrative that Democrats are soft on immigration. “Trump talks a big game about border security, but he does not walk the walk,” she remarked, seeking to reposition the Democratic Party as tough on immigration while still promoting economic opportunities.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead for Latino Voters
With Election Day nearing, both campaigns recognise the importance of Latino voters.
- Diverse Priorities: Latino voters are not a monolith; they have varied concerns ranging from economic issues to immigration policies.
- Strategic Targeting: Both Trump and Harris are adapting their messages to resonate with this crucial demographic, each attempting to carve out their own narrative.
As the campaigns unfold, it will be fascinating to observe how Latino voter engagement shapes the outcome of the election. Their influence is undeniable, making their support a focal point for both candidates.
Relevant links for further reading
- Latino Voter Influence in Elections
- Trump’s Economic Policies
- Harris’ Economic Agenda
- Understanding Latino Voter Trends
- Immigration Policy Overview
