IPO Watchlist: The Climate Tech Startups Most Likely to Go Public

Wondering which climate tech startups might be the next big IPOs?

You’re not alone. With climate tech booming, investors and enthusiasts are eagerly watching the market. This year, the sector has been bolstered by favourable regulations, soaring energy prices, and substantial investments. Yet, despite the buzz, many are asking the same question: where are the exits?

In Q1 alone, venture capital-backed climate tech deal value skyrocketed from $2.1 billion to a staggering $8 billion, according to PitchBook data. This leap showcases the sector’s growth, even without counting H2 Green Steel’s massive $5.2 billion round.

But here’s the kicker: climate tech companies face a longer road to commercial scale compared to their asset-lite counterparts due to their capital-intensive hardware needs. This has led to muted exit activity, with total exit value plummeting over 50% from 2022 to 2023, landing at $9.3 billion.

Still, there are promising standouts. Companies like Northvolt and Andreessen Horowitz-backed KoBold Metals have made significant strides and are strong contenders for an IPO soon.

Not every buzzworthy climate tech startup will reach the finish line. As Katie Rae, managing partner at MIT-backed deep tech fund Engine Ventures, which supports Form Energy, puts it, “We’re going to have a few outlier winners.”

So, which venture-backed climate tech startups are likely to go public? Here’s a list of ten high-potential companies, identified using PitchBook’s VC Exit Predictor. This tool uses a machine learning model fed with historic and real-time data on private company exits to calculate exit probabilities.

Top Climate Tech Startups with High IPO Potential

1. Northvolt
2. KoBold Metals
3. Form Energy
4. H2 Green Steel
5. Carbon Clean Solutions
6. Zume
7. ZeroAvia
8. Lilac Solutions
9. Twelve
10. Infinium

These companies are leading the charge in climate tech innovation and have the backing to potentially make a splash on the public market.

The Road Ahead

• Investment Surge: Regulatory support and high energy prices are driving investment in climate tech.
• Longer Path to Scale: Capital-intensive hardware needs mean a longer journey to commercial success.
• Muted Exits: Despite strong investments, exit activity remains low, though some standouts could soon IPO.
• Machine Learning Insights: Tools like PitchBook’s VC Exit Predictor help identify which startups are likely to go public.

Climate tech is a field ripe with potential, but the journey to an IPO is complex and challenging. Keep an eye on these top contenders—they might just be the next big thing.