Kamala Harris has widened her lead over Donald Trump in a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll, showing a significant shift in voter sentiment ahead of the November 5 election. The poll, released on Thursday, reveals Harris leading Trump 45% to 41%, a notable increase from the narrow 1-point lead she held in late July.
Harris Expands Lead With Support from Women and Hispanics
The latest poll, conducted over eight days ending Wednesday, shows Kamala Harris making significant gains among key voter demographics.
Key Findings:
- Women and Hispanic Voters: Harris leads Trump by 13 percentage points among both women and Hispanic voters, with 49% to Trump’s 36%. This is a substantial increase from her previous 9-point lead among women and 6-point lead among Hispanics.
- White Voters and Men: Trump continues to lead among white voters and men, but his edge has narrowed. Harris has reduced Trump’s lead among voters without a college degree to 7 points, down from 14 points in July.
The Reuters/Ipsos poll highlights a shift in the electoral landscape, underscoring how Harris is energising her base and drawing new supporters.
Impact of Joe Biden’s Campaign Suspension
The dynamics of the presidential race have changed since President Joe Biden suspended his campaign on July 21. Biden’s departure, following a challenging debate performance against Trump, has paved the way for Harris to take the spotlight.
Impact of Biden’s Exit:
- Harris’s Momentum: With Biden out of the race, Harris has gained traction both nationally and in critical swing states. Her campaign activities, including a recent tour of battleground states like Georgia, have boosted her visibility and support.
- Polling in Swing States: Despite her national lead, Harris is still trailing Trump in key swing states. Trump leads Harris 45% to 43% in the seven states where the 2020 election was closest: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada.
Rising Enthusiasm Among Voters
The poll indicates a surge in enthusiasm among Democratic voters following Harris’s nomination.
Enthusiasm Insights:
- Democratic Voter Excitement: 73% of Democratic voters reported increased excitement about voting in November after Harris’s nomination. This enthusiasm contrasts with earlier polls where many voters were primarily motivated by the desire to defeat Trump.
- Support for Harris: Unlike earlier trends, 52% of Harris’s supporters now back her candidacy out of genuine support rather than just opposition to Trump. This reflects a shift towards a more positive engagement with her campaign.
Trump’s Voter Base and Policy Preferences
While Harris gains ground, Trump remains strong among his core supporters, with some issues highlighting his strengths.
Trump’s Support Base:
- Economic Management: Trump is preferred over Harris on economic management, with 45% of voters favouring his approach compared to 36% for Harris.
- Abortion Policy: Harris leads Trump 47% to 31% on abortion policy. With the U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision striking down federal abortion rights, this issue remains critical for many voters. Concerns about potential future abortion bans are significant, particularly among Democrats.
The Road Ahead for Harris and Trump
The election race is heating up as both candidates gear up for the final push before November. Harris’s recent performance and rising support reflect a changing political landscape, but Trump’s enduring support among key demographics shows that the race is far from decided.
What to Watch For:
- Campaign Strategies: How Harris and Trump adjust their campaign strategies in response to shifting voter preferences will be crucial.
- State-by-State Results: While national polls are important, the Electoral College will ultimately decide the election. Watch for how both candidates perform in critical battleground states as November approaches.
Conclusion
Kamala Harris’s wider lead over Donald Trump in the latest poll underscores a shift in voter sentiment and enthusiasm. While Harris is gaining ground, particularly among women and Hispanics, Trump remains a formidable opponent with strong support on economic and policy issues.
As we head into the final months before the election, the dynamics of the race will continue to evolve. Both candidates will need to navigate a complex landscape of voter concerns and shifting opinions to secure victory.
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