Introduction
With only a week until Election Day, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a razor-thin race. The polls have been teetering, with some positive signs for Harris as one critical demographic shifts in her favor. But will this change be enough?
Let’s dive into the latest poll updates and what they reveal about the 2024 election, swing states, and who might come out on top next week.
1. Deadlock in the National Polls
The national polls show no clear winner. In an average of polls collected by FiveThirtyEight, Kamala Harris has a slight 1.4-point lead over Donald Trump. However, this lead has narrowed over the past month, with both candidates locked in a dead heat across battleground states. This means that, just like in 2016, the Electoral College will likely decide the election.
Polls in Key States
- In seven key states, polls show no clear lead outside the margin of error.
- Trump is currently leading in Arizona and North Carolina.
- Harris holds a narrow lead in Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
- Nevada polls show a perfect tie.
2. A New Surge of Support Among Black Men Under 50
According to a recent NAACP poll, Black men under 50 have significantly increased their support for Kamala Harris, climbing from 51% last month to 59%. Meanwhile, support for Trump dropped from 27% to 21%.
This is a crucial shift in the final weeks. Black voters are a key demographic for Democrats, but support isn’t as solid as in past elections. For instance, Harris’s support among all Black voters is 73%, down from the 90% Biden held in 2020 and Obama’s 93% in 2008.
3. Why Swing State Voters Are the Wild Card
With national polls too close to call, swing state voters hold the deciding power. According to a Washington Post/Schar School poll, 37% of voters in battleground states are firmly backing Harris or Trump, while 10% remain undecided. This undecided group could tip the scales on Election Day.
Issues That Matter to Swing Voters
- Economy: Continues to be the top concern for voters.
- Healthcare and Democracy: Two of the most important issues on the ballot.
- Immigration: High-priority for Latino voters, according to exclusive polling.
- Climate Change: Surprisingly, this ranks lowest on swing voters’ priority list, despite recent hurricanes.
4. Gender Gaps Narrow in Key States
Another surprise in the 2024 election has been the gender gap between Trump and Harris. While Harris generally polls better with women and Trump with men, the HarrisX poll recently revealed an unexpected shift. Here’s what it found:
- Trump is now favored by 49% of women in Florida.
- This reduces the Democrats’ usual stronghold among women, a group that has leaned left in recent elections.
5. Senate Races: Another Potential Shake-Up
It’s not just the presidential race that’s tight. The GOP is concerned about its Senate seats as well, with internal polling showing they’re trailing Democrats in seven out of nine critical seats.
Key Senate battles:
- Texas: Democrat Colin Allred is only 1 point behind Ted Cruz.
- Florida: Rick Scott holds just a 4-point lead over Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, with 8% undecided voters.
The GOP’s internal memo suggests some red states may even be at risk, increasing the stakes in down-ballot races.
6. Will Trump Accept the Results?
A recent CNN/SSRS poll highlights that 69% of voters believe Trump won’t accept a loss in this election. This concern about a contested election reflects widespread public anxiety over a repeat of 2020.
7. Engagement and Turnout Among Younger Voters
Although young voters overwhelmingly support Kamala Harris (a recent YouGov poll gave her a 25-point lead among under-30s), their commitment to voting is weaker. Only 65% of 18-29-year-olds have said they’ll definitely vote. This hesitation could impact the results if younger voters don’t turn out in strong numbers.
Why Young Voter Turnout Matters
- In 2020, 27% of young voters weren’t committed to voting; this year, it’s 16%.
- A 10% improvement in turnout among young voters could be a decisive factor.
Can Kamala Harris Win?
With Election Day just days away, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are neck-and-neck. Polls are close across the board, and battleground states remain unpredictable.
But one thing is clear: this 2024 election could be the closest one we’ve seen in years, driven by split demographics and a shifting political landscape. With younger and minority voters showing mixed levels of enthusiasm, both campaigns will need every vote.
As we head into the final stretch, all eyes are on Harris, who appears to be closing in on Trump with crucial swing voters in key states. However, the final outcome hinges on voter turnout and a few strategic, late-game shifts in the polls. One thing’s for sure—Election Day is going to be intense.
Learn More:
- Kamala Harris: Kamala Harris for President
- Swing state voters: Importance of Swing State Voters
- Battleground states: 2024 Battleground States Guide
- Electoral College: Understanding the Electoral College
- Contested election: What Happens if the Election is Contested
