A recent poll reveals intriguing dynamics in the Latino vote for the upcoming presidential election, highlighting a notable shift based on language preferences. The survey, conducted from August 3-23, shows a significant divide between English-speaking and Spanish-speaking Latinos in their support for Vice President Kamala Harris versus former President Donald Trump.
Polling Overview: Harris vs. Trump
The poll, which surveyed 3,000 Latino eligible voters, indicates varied levels of support for Kamala Harris depending on the language spoken in the household.
Key Findings
- Overall Support: Among all Latinos surveyed, Harris leads with 59% support compared to Trump’s 32%.
- English-Speaking Households: Harris’ lead narrows, with 51% support versus Trump’s 38%.
- Spanish-Speaking Households: Harris enjoys a stronger lead, securing 64% support while Trump receives 30%.
- Bilingual Households: The split is closer, with Harris at 54% and Trump at 33%.
Language and Voting Preferences
The poll, released by UnidosUS and conducted by BSP Research, sheds light on how language impacts political preferences among Latinos.
Spanish-Speaking Latinos
- Higher Support for Harris: Spanish-speaking Latinos show a clear preference for Harris, reflecting a stronger alignment with Democratic values.
- Alignment with Values: When asked which party aligns more closely with their values regarding the American Dream, 55% of Spanish-speaking Latinos chose Democrats, compared to just 22% who preferred Republicans.
English-Speaking Latinos
- Tighter Race: The race tightens significantly among English-speaking Latinos. This group is more evenly split between Harris and Trump.
- Political Engagement: English-speaking Latinos are more likely to report having received no contact from political campaigns or organisations (64% versus 55% among Spanish-speaking Latinos).
UnidosUS and Political Endorsements
UnidosUS, the largest Latino advocacy group, has endorsed Kamala Harris. This endorsement aligns with the group’s broader mission to represent Latino interests and values.
Campaign Focus
- Housing and Healthcare: According to Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant, the Harris campaign’s focus on housing, healthcare, and moderate border security resonates with Latino voters, addressing key concerns.
Historical Context and Comparison
In the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden received 65% of the Latino vote, a significant lead over Trump’s 32%. However, recent polling suggests Biden’s successor, Kamala Harris, faces a more competitive race.
Current Polling Trends
- July Pew Research: A recent Pew poll showed Biden and Trump in a dead heat among Hispanic registered voters, each receiving 36% support.
- Harris’ Challenge: Despite improving her standing, Harris has yet to match Biden’s 2020 performance with Latino voters.
Expert Opinions on Latino Voting Trends
- Roberto Suro, a professor at the University of Southern California, noted that while Harris has improved her standing among Latinos, she still trails behind Biden’s 2020 numbers.
- Mike Madrid highlights the evolving preferences among Latino voters, especially among different generational cohorts.
Conclusion
The Latino vote is proving to be a complex and crucial factor in the upcoming election. With significant variations in support based on language and engagement levels, Kamala Harris faces both opportunities and challenges in appealing to this diverse voter base. Understanding these nuances will be key for both campaigns as they seek to secure crucial votes in the upcoming election.
