Keir Starmer’s handling of the Chagos Islands dispute is rapidly spiraling into what some are calling “total humiliation.” With the planned deal to return the Chagos Islands to Mauritius on the verge of collapse, the stakes couldn’t be higher for the UK Prime Minister. What was once a deal supported by international bodies like the International Court of Justice (ICJ) is now facing stiff opposition, both at home and abroad.
The clock is ticking, and within the next 48 hours, the UK government could face a severe blow to its credibility, as the deal to hand over the Chagos Islands to Mauritius is teetering on the brink of failure. Here’s what you need to know about the collapsing Chagos Islands deal and what it means for Keir Starmer, his government, and the UK’s international standing.
What’s at Stake for Keir Starmer and the UK Government?
The Chagos Islands, including the crucial military base at Diego Garcia, have been at the heart of a longstanding dispute. Mauritius claims that the islands were illegally separated from it in 1968 in exchange for independence from Britain. The islands have been under British control ever since, with Diego Garcia hosting a major US military airbase that is vital to US military operations in the Indian Ocean.
In 2019, the International Court of Justice ruled that the UK must return the islands to Mauritius, setting the stage for a dramatic change in the region’s geopolitical landscape. Starmer’s government agreed to the deal, which involves returning the islands to Mauritius in exchange for a long-term agreement on the continued use of Diego Garcia by the UK and the US.
However, just as things appeared to be moving forward, Starmer’s plan is now facing serious setbacks. From opposition within Mauritius to concerns raised by the incoming Trump administration, the agreement could collapse, leaving Starmer’s credibility in tatters.
Key Challenges Facing Starmer’s Chagos Islands Deal
1. Mauritius Government’s Hesitation
The new Prime Minister of Mauritius, Navinchandra Ramgoolam, has cast doubt on the deal originally struck by his predecessor. While Starmer’s team, led by Jonathan Powell, sought to secure the agreement, Ramgoolam has raised concerns and insisted that he needs more time to review the terms with a legal panel. He even called the deal “high treason” and a “sellout” during the election campaign.
- Ramgoolam has now stated that he will discuss the deal with his cabinet on Friday, and his final stance will play a crucial role in determining whether the agreement goes ahead.
- If Mauritius rejects the deal, the UK government will face not only international embarrassment but also the collapse of a critical foreign policy agreement.
2. Trump Administration’s Opposition
As the Trump administration prepares to take office, there are growing concerns that the incoming US president will not back the deal. Even though the US State Department and the Pentagon have given their tentative support, Trump’s team has become increasingly vocal in opposing the agreement.
- Marco Rubio, Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, warned in October that handing the islands back to Mauritius would pose a significant threat to US national security, potentially jeopardizing the US military presence on Diego Garcia.
- Nigel Farage and other Brexit supporters have also raised concerns, claiming that the agreement could open the door for China to establish a rival military base in the region, a scenario the US would not tolerate.
In the coming days, Jonathan Powell is scheduled to meet with Trump’s team in Washington to try and persuade them to support the deal. But with growing opposition, both in the UK and the US, Powell’s task is becoming increasingly difficult.
3. Security Concerns Over Diego Garcia
Diego Garcia is one of the most strategically important military bases in the world. For both the UK and US, maintaining access to the base is critical for operations in the Middle East and Africa. The agreement between the UK and Mauritius guarantees the use of the base for 99 years, but the specifics of the deal remain undisclosed.
- Critics of the deal fear that returning control of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius will undermine security in the region, particularly if Mauritius strengthens ties with China, a key US rival.
- There are fears that the Chinese military could use the islands to build its own base, shifting the balance of power in the Indian Ocean and threatening Western security interests.
The UK’s Response: Starmer, Lammy, and Powell Stand Firm
Despite mounting opposition, the UK government, led by Keir Starmer, has insisted that it must comply with the ICJ ruling. Foreign Secretary David Lammy has doubled down on the deal, claiming it is “good for the UK” because it secures the future use of Diego Garcia.
- Lammy has argued that the agreement provides the UK with “99 years” of access to the base, a significant win for both the UK and US military. However, the government has so far refused to disclose the financial terms or details of the agreement, prompting calls for transparency.
While Keir Starmer remains confident that the deal will go ahead, the rising political opposition, both in Mauritius and the US, has left the government on the defensive.
What Happens if the Deal Collapses?
If the Chagos Islands deal falls apart, it will represent a major embarrassment for Keir Starmer and his government. It would not only damage the UK’s standing on the global stage but also undermine the country’s relationship with both the US and Mauritius.
- The UK would be forced to reconsider its legal and political commitments to the ICJ ruling, potentially opening the door for further diplomatic and legal challenges.
- With Mauritius and the US both expressing dissatisfaction with the deal, the UK would face a credibility crisis, both in terms of its international relations and its ability to honour its commitments.
In the event of a collapse, Starmer could face political humiliation, with accusations that his government has failed to deliver on a key foreign policy issue. As a result, Starmer’s leadership may come under even greater scrutiny, especially with the upcoming general election looming on the horizon.
Conclusion: The Future of the Chagos Islands and Keir Starmer’s Leadership
The Chagos Islands deal remains a major point of contention in global politics. As the UK government faces intense pressure from both Mauritius and the Trump administration, the outcome of this agreement could have far-reaching consequences. For Keir Starmer, the stakes are higher than ever. If the deal collapses, it will be a humiliating blow to his leadership, with both domestic and international ramifications.
As the situation unfolds, we’ll be keeping an eye on the developments to see if Starmer can salvage the deal or if it will go down as a failed foreign policy gamble. With tensions rising and time running out, the coming days will be crucial in determining the fate of the Chagos Islands and the future of Keir Starmer’s leadership.
photo credit: Daily Mail
