The 2024 US Presidential election has come and gone, but political betting remains as strong as ever. While most people have shifted their focus away from the election results, millions of dollars continue to flow into prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. These platforms offer a unique way to bet on everything from the 2028 presidential race to Trump’s potential cabinet picks.
In this post, I’ll dive into the political bets that are still attracting attention and explain why prediction markets have become so popular since the election. Whether you’re new to this type of betting or a seasoned participant, there’s a lot to be excited about in the coming years.
The Rise of Political Prediction Markets
Prediction markets have gained massive popularity over the last few years, and the 2024 election was a turning point. Platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket saw unprecedented volumes of wagers on the election outcome, but the betting didn’t stop there. Even after the results were finalised, political bettors quickly moved on to new topics.
Kalshi, which gained court approval to operate US-based election betting contracts in October 2024, has brought a new level of legitimacy and excitement to this form of wagering. And it’s not just about who wins or loses — it’s about predicting the future of US politics in real-time.
Here are some of the biggest ongoing bets in the political betting space right now:
1. Who Will Be the Democratic Nominee in 2028?
While we still have four years until the next presidential election, political bettors are already speculating on the 2028 Democratic nominee. This market is a popular one, with odds constantly shifting based on current political trends, party dynamics, and the public perception of key figures.
Here are the top contenders as of now:
- Gavin Newsom (16¢)
- Josh Shapiro (15¢)
- Gretchen Whitmer (11¢)
- Pete Buttigieg (9¢)
- Andy Beshear (8¢)
The total betting volume for this market is already over $145,000, showing that there’s serious interest in predicting the future of the Democratic Party.
Key Takeaway: Betting on the 2028 Democratic nominee is already drawing attention, with several strong candidates emerging. Will a fresh face rise to the top, or will one of these familiar names clinch the nomination?
2. Who Will Be the Republican Nominee in 2028?
The 2028 Republican race is equally hot, with several prominent Republicans likely to vie for the nomination. The top names in this betting pool right now are:
- JD Vance (52¢)
- Vivek Ramaswamy (8¢)
- Ron DeSantis (6¢)
- Donald Trump Jr. (6¢)
- Marco Rubio (6¢)
- Donald Trump (2¢)
With over $110,000 already wagered, this bet is also attracting significant attention, especially given the ongoing influence of former President Donald Trump on the party. The question of who will carry the torch for the Republican Party in 2028 is one that many are eager to answer.
Key Takeaway: The race for the 2028 Republican nomination is wide open, with many potential candidates, but JD Vance currently holds the most support.
3. Who Will Be Part of Trump’s Administration?
One of the most fascinating markets is betting on who will be part of Donald Trump’s future administration, should he choose to launch another bid for the presidency in 2028. Notable figures like RFK Jr. and Elon Musk have significant odds in this betting pool:
- Elon Musk (14¢)
- RFK Jr. (91¢)
- Vivek Ramaswamy (19¢)
- Steve Bannon (10¢)
- Jared Kushner (13¢)
- Ben Carson (80¢)
- Ken Paxton (27¢)
- Betsy DeVos (13¢)
With more than $2.0 million in total bets, this market reflects the speculation around who will be part of the Trump administration should he return to the White House. The involvement of big names like Elon Musk and RFK Jr. raises the stakes for this bet.
Key Takeaway: Betting on who will join Trump’s cabinet is an exciting market, especially with high-profile individuals potentially taking major roles.
4. Will Trump End the Ukraine War in His First 90 Days?
This is a high-stakes bet that reflects the ongoing global political climate. Trump has often claimed that he could end the Ukraine conflict quickly, so bettors are now wagering on whether he will fulfil that promise:
- Yes (47¢)
- No (54¢)
With $2.9 million in bets placed, this is one of the most significant ongoing political wagers. If Trump were to return to the White House, would he really be able to end the war in his first three months? Time will tell.
Key Takeaway: The question of whether Trump can end the war in Ukraine is one of the most highly anticipated political predictions, with major financial backing.
5. Who Will Be Trump’s Press Secretary?
Another popular market revolves around who will be Trump’s Press Secretary should he return to office. The odds are stacked in favour of Karoline Leavitt, but there are a few other familiar names floating around:
- Karoline Leavitt (66¢)
- Scott Jennings (17¢)
- Tucker Carlson (5¢)
- Alina Habba (5¢)
- Kari Lake (5¢)
- Peter Doocy (4¢)
With over $300,000 in betting volume, this market is a popular choice for those looking to make predictions about Trump’s media strategy.
Key Takeaway: The battle for Trump’s Press Secretary role is an intriguing one, with several key figures vying for the position.
6. Will Trump Create a National Bitcoin Reserve?
In a world where digital currency continues to gain traction, the idea of Trump establishing a national Bitcoin reserve has garnered considerable attention. Currently, the odds are as follows:
- Yes (32¢)
- No (69¢)
The total bet volume here stands at $285,843, reflecting growing interest in the potential for Bitcoin to become more mainstream in US monetary policy under a future Trump administration.
Key Takeaway: The national Bitcoin reserve bet shows that people are paying attention to how cryptocurrency could become a more integrated part of US financial policy under Trump’s leadership.
Conclusion: The Future of Political Betting
While the 2024 election has come to an end, political betting remains a dynamic and lucrative market. Whether it’s predicting the 2028 presidential race, guessing Trump’s cabinet picks, or betting on his handling of international conflicts, there’s no shortage of fascinating political outcomes to wager on.
The surge in political prediction markets is likely to continue as more people become interested in forecasting future political events. So, if you’ve been watching these markets and wondering how to get involved, now might be the perfect time to start placing your bets.
