As the war in Ukraine continues to evolve, Russia’s offensive has faced significant setbacks. Moscow’s forces are struggling to advance, and recent operations in the Belgorod region highlight just how much Ukraine’s forces are disrupting Russian plans. The fighting along the Russia-Ukraine border is intensifying, especially with Kyiv’s ongoing cross-border incursions into Russian territory, particularly Belgorod and Kursk. This post breaks down the current situation, the key players involved, and what the future of the conflict might look like.
The State of Russia’s Offensive in Ukraine
The pace of Moscow’s advances in Ukraine has slowed considerably. While Russia initially made significant gains, especially in the eastern regions of Ukraine, recent reports show that their forces are now facing stiff resistance.
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Limited Territorial Gains: Russian investigative outlet Agentstvo reported that between March 10 and March 16, Russia had only gained 22.5 square kilometres of territory in Ukraine. This highlights how the Russian forces are struggling to make meaningful progress on the battlefield.
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Ukrainian Counterattacks: Ukraine’s forces have been successfully pushing back Russian advances, particularly in the Belgorod region, just across the border from the Russian Kursk region. This resistance is forcing Russia to stretch its troops thin, diverting resources from other critical areas.
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Stalled Advances: Despite continued attacks, Russia has not made significant headway around major cities like Kharkiv, Kupiansk, Borova, or Lyman, according to reports from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Instead, Russia has focused more on areas like Siversk, Zaporizhzhia, and around Pokrovsk.
This slow pace of advance comes at a time when Russian troops are stretched thin, and their momentum seems to be faltering.
Kyiv’s Cross-Border Operations: A Disruption to Russian Forces
One of the most notable developments in the conflict is Ukraine’s cross-border operations into Russian territory. These incursions are not only tactical but also have strategic implications for Moscow.
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Ukraine’s Belgorod Incursion: In early March 2024, Ukrainian forces carried out a cross-border attack in the Belgorod region, located just south of Kursk. Moscow claimed that the attack involved around 200 Ukrainian soldiers and five tanks. The purpose was likely to disrupt Russian control of this strategic area and create more pressure on Russian forces.
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Stretched Russian Resources: Russian military bloggers, such as Two Majors, reported that Ukrainian forces are stretching Russian troops by launching multiple attacks along the Belgorod border. Russia is now having to commit more forces to defend this area, which is causing strain on their broader military operations.
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Strategic Importance of Belgorod: Belgorod is a critical region for Russia as it serves as a key logistical hub. The region’s proximity to Kursk makes it a vital area for both sides. As Ukraine continues its operations, it threatens to force Russia into a defensive posture along its western border.
Ukraine’s cross-border operations are forcing Russia to divide its resources, making it harder for them to focus on their primary objectives within Ukraine.
The Strategic Impact on Ceasefire Negotiations
One of the more significant consequences of Ukraine’s territorial gains in Kursk and Belgorod is the leverage it provides in ongoing ceasefire talks.
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Kursk as a Bargaining Chip: The territory that Ukraine controls in the Kursk region, including key settlements like Sudzha, has become a bargaining chip for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It provides leverage in any ceasefire negotiations, particularly on the issue of territorial concessions, which have been a point of contention between Kyiv and Moscow.
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Moscow’s Struggles: Despite Russian forces launching an offensive to recapture Sudzha, they have not been able to retake the settlement. This failure highlights the difficulty Russia faces in maintaining control over contested areas. Meanwhile, the continuing uncertainty over the Kursk region’s status gives Ukraine a stronger position at the negotiating table.
In addition, the loss of territory and stalled advances are weakening Russia’s bargaining position, especially as international actors like the United States and European Union push for peace talks.
Russian Military Operations in Belgorod
Moscow’s operations in Belgorod have been heavily scrutinised. While Ukraine’s forces have conducted several cross-border raids, Russia is attempting to maintain a presence in the region.
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Moscow’s Counteroffensive: In response to Ukraine’s incursions, Moscow launched a fresh offensive in early March to reclaim areas lost in Belgorod. However, reports indicate that Russian forces have not made significant headway in the region. Russia’s military bloggers suggest that Ukrainian forces are continuing to push along the border, further complicating Moscow’s military efforts.
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Russian Military Claims: The Russian Defence Ministry claims that it has successfully neutralised several Ukrainian forces attempting to infiltrate Belgorod. However, the ISW indicates that Russia has not been able to secure any major advancements along the Kharkiv, Sumy, and Kursk frontlines.
What’s Next in the Conflict?
The ongoing conflict shows no signs of abating, and military experts predict that fighting will continue along the Russia-Ukraine border for the foreseeable future.
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Potential for More Cross-Border Raids: Ukraine’s military will likely continue its cross-border operations into Belgorod and beyond, particularly as it seeks to maintain pressure on Russia. These operations could force Russian forces to divert even more resources to defend their border regions, further weakening their position inside Ukraine.
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Diplomatic Solutions: While military operations continue, there are growing calls for diplomatic negotiations. Talks with U.S. officials are reportedly taking place in Saudi Arabia, and it remains to be seen whether these discussions will lead to a significant de-escalation in hostilities.
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Russia’s Military Challenges: Moscow’s inability to make significant gains and the continuous pressure from Ukrainian forces may force Russia to re-evaluate its strategy. The military’s struggle to advance could prompt a shift towards more defensive operations, rather than continuing offensives.
Conclusion
Russia’s offensive in Ukraine has faced serious setbacks as Kyiv’s forces continue to disrupt Russian plans, particularly in regions like Belgorod and Kursk. Ukraine’s cross-border operations and its growing influence in negotiations provide it with leverage on the international stage. As Russia’s forces struggle to make meaningful territorial gains, the conflict continues to evolve, with no clear resolution in sight. The coming months could be crucial in determining whether Moscow can regain momentum or whether Ukraine will continue to turn the tide in its favour.
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Photo credit: Известия
