The recent developments in Syria have been nothing short of extraordinary. What was once a fragile status quo is now crumbling as rebel factions, led by the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), push further south towards Damascus, the heart of President Bashar al-Assad’s power. After capturing Hama and Aleppo, HTS has set its sights on Homs, and with it, a direct challenge to Assad’s regime. This dramatic shift in the conflict raises crucial questions about the future of Syria and the fate of its embattled leader.
The Fall of Hama: A Key Turning Point
Just days ago, the Syrian government was confident it could hold Hama. But within hours, the Syrian military pulled out of the city, ceding control to rebel forces for the first time in the war. This sudden retreat underscores the growing strength of the insurgents and the declining power of the regime.
Hama’s loss marks a pivotal moment. The city holds strategic value, and its fall suggests the government’s grip on the country is weakening. What’s next? Homs—an even more important city—could be the next to fall.
Why Homs Matters: The Battle for Syria’s Heartland
Homs is no ordinary city. Strategically positioned, it sits at a crossroads leading both to Damascus and the coastal region, where Assad’s support base is strongest. The city’s significance makes it a critical target for HTS and other rebel factions.
With thousands fleeing the city in anticipation of a major battle, the stakes have never been higher. If rebels succeed in capturing Homs, it could pave the way for an assault on Damascus itself. The capture of Syria’s capital would effectively signal the collapse of the Assad regime, a possibility that is now becoming more likely.
HTS: The Group Behind the Insurgency
For years, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), an Islamist group that evolved from al-Qaeda affiliates in Syria, focused on building power in the north-western province of Idlib. However, their recent momentum has shifted towards a more ambitious goal: overthrowing the Assad regime.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani recently confirmed their intention to topple Assad. This declaration changes the game entirely, as it signifies a shift from insurgency to a full-scale attempt to control the country.
As HTS pushes south, Damascus has become their ultimate prize, with rebels vowing to defeat Assad and take control of Syria’s capital.
The Syrian Army: Under Pressure and Overstretched
One of the key factors in Assad’s survival has been the support he’s received from Russia and Iran. However, the Syrian military is under significant strain. It’s made up largely of conscripts, who are poorly equipped and underpaid. Desertion is a constant issue, and morale is low, as evidenced by the army’s inability to hold key cities like Aleppo and Hama.
In a desperate bid to keep soldiers motivated, Assad raised salaries by 50%. But this gesture is unlikely to change the tide of war. Despite Russia’s backing, Syrian forces are losing ground. This raises doubts about Assad’s ability to withstand the escalating rebel advances.
The Role of Russia: A Strategic Player Facing Challenges
Russia’s intervention in Syria in 2015 was a game-changer. It helped keep Assad in power and thwarted rebel advances. However, Russia’s capacity to sustain such support may now be limited.
With the ongoing conflict in Ukraine draining resources, Russia is stretched thin, and its military may not be able to provide the same level of support as it once did. Despite this, Russia’s strategic interests in Syria are clear. The naval base in Tartus is Russia’s only military hub in the Mediterranean, making it critical for Moscow to ensure Assad remains in power.
If rebels gain control of Homs, they could open a route towards the Syrian coast, directly threatening Russia’s military presence in the region. Therefore, Russia will likely continue supporting Assad, even if it means a diminished control of Syria.
Iran and Hezbollah: The Shifting Alliances
Another crucial player in the Syrian conflict is Iran. Over the years, Tehran has provided substantial military aid to Assad, supporting him through proxy forces like Hezbollah. These militias have been key to keeping the regime afloat. However, Hezbollah has recently suffered heavy losses in Lebanon, weakening its ability to fight effectively in Syria. Still, elite forces from Hezbollah have reportedly crossed into Syria and taken up positions in Homs, showing that Tehran remains committed to Assad’s survival.
However, Iran’s strategy has shifted. While it has previously been more aggressive, Tehran seems less inclined to offer the kind of full-scale military support it once did. Iranian-backed militias in Iraq may also enter the conflict, but both Iraq’s government and influential Shia leader Moqtada al-Sadr have warned against such involvement, which could escalate tensions further.
The Bigger Picture: Regional and International Implications
Syria’s civil war has become a complex proxy battleground, with multiple factions, foreign powers, and shifting alliances. The various rebel groups are not united in their goals. Alongside HTS, there are Kurdish-led forces in the north-east, Turkish-backed Syrian National Army factions in the north, and remnants of ISIS still operating in the desert regions.
Despite this, Assad’s survival has hinged on the divisions among his opponents. If these groups continue to fail to unite, Assad’s position may remain secure. However, the growing momentum of HTS and their open challenge to his rule means the balance of power in Syria is rapidly shifting.
As of now, Assad still retains the support of several minority groups, including his own Alawite sect, who fear the rise of jihadist forces like HTS. Many of these groups still see Assad as the “lesser evil,” fearing the alternative could be even worse.
Conclusion: What’s Next for Assad and Syria?
The future of Syria hinges on several factors. The military capabilities of Assad’s forces, the support of Russia and Iran, and the evolving dynamics between various opposition groups will all play a role in determining whether Assad survives or if the rebels will eventually succeed in overthrowing him.
For now, the focus remains on Homs, and the question of whether the Syrian army can prevent the rebels from advancing further. As the conflict continues to evolve, Damascus remains the ultimate prize—and it’s increasingly clear that HTS intends to take it.
Photo credit: Sky News
