The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government on December 8 has ignited hopes for a new chapter in Syria’s history. The country’s descent into chaos over the last 13 years has left behind a shattered infrastructure, a crippled economy, and a society on the brink. Yet, amidst this despair lies the possibility of a fresh start—if Syria’s new leadership can navigate the immense challenges ahead.
In this post, we’ll break down the factors that will shape Syria’s recovery and explore how international support can help steer the country back to stability.
Syria’s Ruined Economy: A Desperate Situation
Syria’s economy was once a blend of agriculture, oil exports, manufacturing, and a growing services sector. By 2011, it was emerging as a regional trade and tourism hub. But the onset of civil war left it in tatters. Over the past decade, Syria’s GDP has plummeted by more than 80%, with an overwhelming 90% of its population now living below the poverty line.
The destruction isn’t just economic. The Syrian pound has lost over 99% of its value, and inflation has spiraled out of control. Unemployment is at an all-time high, and millions of Syrians remain displaced. The country is unable to meet even its basic energy needs, with electricity provided for only a few hours each day.
These severe challenges are exacerbated by the economic sanctions imposed by Western countries. The sanctions aimed to weaken Assad’s regime but have also isolated Syria from the global economy, stifling trade and investment. In the absence of international aid and with limited access to financial systems, Syria’s recovery seems like an insurmountable task.
The Need for International Assistance and Reform
Any new leadership in Syria will face the dual challenge of rebuilding a nation while addressing the mounting pressure of economic sanctions. The most immediate need is humanitarian aid. Millions of Syrians face hunger, extreme poverty, and lack of basic services. The urgent task is to restore essential services such as healthcare, sanitation, and education.
Here’s where the international community plays a crucial role. The United States and the European Union must ease sanctions on Syria, especially those targeting energy, banking, and trade sectors. But these sanctions should be lifted gradually, with clear commitments from Syria’s new government to pursue political reforms, ensure human rights, and work towards a democratic transition.
The Challenge of Rebuilding Infrastructure
Syria’s infrastructure—once the backbone of its economy—has been decimated. Power plants, oil refineries, and transportation networks lie in ruins. Rebuilding this infrastructure will require both domestic reforms and foreign investment.
Key to any rebuilding process is restoring energy supplies. With Syria’s oil fields now controlled by Kurdish forces backed by the U.S., it’s essential to incorporate these territories into the broader national framework to ensure energy security and fuel the country’s reconstruction efforts.
The Burden of Displacement: Absorbing Returnees
A significant issue on the horizon is the return of displaced Syrians. Over 5 million Syrians have fled the country, and many are now considering returning. However, the country’s infrastructure is already stretched thin. A third of Syria’s housing stock is destroyed or inhabitable, and basic services are in disarray.
Moreover, legal disputes over property ownership and the lack of systems to help returning refugees could further destabilize the nation. While the desire to rebuild the country is strong, the immediate focus must be on integration—creating systems that allow for the safe return and reintegration of displaced citizens.
Overcoming Fragmentation: Economic and Political Unity
Syria’s economy is fragmented. During the conflict, the country was divided into various regions controlled by different groups, each with its own economic system and currency. The Syrian pound was used in areas controlled by Assad, while the Turkish lira was dominant in other regions. Moreover, Syria’s currency was not universally accepted, making trade and commerce difficult.
For Syria to move forward, a unified economic framework is essential. The first step will be to unify the currency across the country. This may seem like a small detail, but it’s a crucial signal that Syria is serious about economic recovery and stability.
Another critical challenge will be reconciliation between business elites who have emerged in regions beyond Assad’s control. These elites have grown wealthy from the war economy, and they are unlikely to give up their wealth and power easily. These competing factions will need to find common ground to help rebuild Syria’s economy and social fabric.
Addressing the Political Landscape: Governance and Reforms
Political reform must go hand-in-hand with economic recovery. Syria’s political system under Assad was characterised by authoritarian rule, corruption, and brutal repression. For any new government to succeed, it must be willing to implement meaningful reforms that include transparency, democratic elections, and respect for human rights.
The UN’s Security Council Resolution 2254, which outlines a path for Syria’s peaceful transition, provides a clear framework for these reforms. However, Syria’s new leadership must embrace this process. If it fails to do so, it risks prolonging the conflict, alienating key international players, and suffering deeper instability.
The Path Forward: A Long Road to Recovery
The road to Syria’s recovery is not easy. But there is hope. Rebuilding Syria will take time, and it will require both domestic efforts and international cooperation. The country’s new leadership must make a clear commitment to political and economic reform, to inspire confidence both at home and abroad.
The path to a better Syria begins with addressing the country’s immediate needs—providing humanitarian aid, rebuilding infrastructure, and fostering political unity. But lasting peace and prosperity will require a commitment to reform, economic liberalisation, and the involvement of private-sector entrepreneurs.
If Syria can overcome the deep scars of its past, there is potential for a future where its people thrive once again. This will take leadership, collaboration, and a steady hand in the face of adversity. Syria’s recovery depends not just on the will of its leaders but on the support and engagement of the international community.
Photo credit: Foreign Affairs
