In northern Syria, a dramatic shift has unfolded. Anti-government rebels have launched a bold surprise offensive, aiming to capitalise on the growing vulnerabilities of Iran’s regional proxies. After years of limited progress, these rebel forces have swiftly seized control of 40 towns and villages, along with a Syrian military base. This unexpected turn of events has taken the international community by surprise, as rebels move closer to Aleppo, Syria’s second-largest city, long under the control of Assad’s forces and Iranian militias.
In this blog, we’ll dive deep into how the rebels are exploiting weaknesses in Iran’s allies, particularly Hezbollah, and the changing dynamics in the region. We’ll also explore why this offensive marks a significant escalation in Syria’s ongoing civil war.
Rebel Offensive: A Strategic Move Against Assad and Iranian Militias
The recent operation, dubbed the “Deterrence of Aggression,” has made headlines across the globe. Launched by a coalition of rebel factions, it is an attempt to deter the Syrian government and the Iranian militias they rely on, who the rebels accuse of brutalizing civilian populations, particularly in regions with displaced Syrians.
Why now? The rebels see a unique opportunity. With Hezbollah significantly weakened by Israel’s aggressive military actions in Lebanon, and Iran itself under increasing pressure from Israel, the rebels have decided to take action. This new offensive represents the first major confrontation between the rebels and Assad’s forces since March 2020, when Russia and Turkey brokered a ceasefire.
Key Moments of the Rebel Offensive
- Wednesday’s Operation: Rebels launched a surprise attack after Assad’s forces shelled Idlib province, killing more than 30 civilians.
- Capture of Key Towns: Rebels quickly seized control of over 40 towns, pushing closer to Aleppo.
- Targeted Areas: Areas with displaced populations became prime targets as the rebels sought to push back against Iranian-backed forces in the region.
Despite Turkey’s attempts to mediate, urging the rebels to prevent further escalation, the offensive gained momentum as Assad’s forces fled from key locations. This indicates a changing power dynamic, as Assad’s military appears increasingly vulnerable.
The Weakened Axis of Resistance: Iran’s Struggling Proxy Forces
For over a decade, Iran has been a central player in Syria’s civil war, supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime with troops, weapons, and funding. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) and Hezbollah have been key to Assad’s survival, especially as the Syrian opposition made significant advances. But in the past year, the landscape has shifted drastically.
Hezbollah’s Struggles
- Israel’s Impact: Hezbollah has suffered significant setbacks in Lebanon, losing many of its top leaders in targeted Israeli strikes.
- Resource Drain: As the group focuses more on Lebanon and Israel, its presence in Syria has dwindled, leaving gaps in Assad’s military strategy.
- Strategic Shift: With fewer Hezbollah fighters in Syria, Iran’s ability to project power in the region has been weakened, opening the door for the rebels to advance.
Iran’s Regional Influence at Risk
Iran’s ambitious plan to solidify its influence across the Middle East, through the so-called “Axis of Resistance”, has been jeopardised by recent developments. As Hezbollah loses strength, and with Iran’s proxies in Syria becoming more vulnerable, the rebels see an opening to challenge Assad’s rule and strike a blow to Iran’s strategic presence in the region.
Why This Matters: Implications for the Wider Region
The rebels’ offensive has broader implications beyond Syria’s borders. Israel has been actively targeting Iran’s military installations in Syria for years, and the country’s aerial strikes on Hezbollah have further destabilised the region. This also comes at a time when the Syrian opposition is more unified than ever before, with various rebel groups collaborating in ways that they hadn’t in the past.
Furthermore, Turkey’s role in northern Syria complicates the situation. While Ankara has historically supported opposition groups, it is also focused on maintaining a delicate balance, trying to avoid further escalation with Russia and Iran.
Analysts Weigh In: A Changing Power Dynamic
According to Nanar Hawach, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, the rebels are “testing the front lines” while Hezbollah and Iran are stretched thin. Their surprise success shows that the rebels are not just acting out of desperation but are strategically exploiting vulnerabilities in their opponents.
- Iran’s Influence: The shift in the power dynamic between Syria, Iran, and Russia has opened a new front for the rebels to advance their cause.
- Turkey’s Tension: Turkey’s role is crucial in either supporting or suppressing the rebel offensive, depending on how the conflict evolves.
The Future of the Syrian Conflict: What’s Next?
This surprise rebel offensive is far from over. The rebel coalition has proven that it can challenge Assad’s forces in ways previously thought impossible. Whether they can maintain their momentum and capitalize on Hezbollah’s weakness remains to be seen.
The growing tensions between Israel, Iran, and Syria are sure to play a pivotal role in the outcome. The Syrian civil war may have entered a new phase, where regional powers are increasingly engaged in proxy conflicts, and local factions like the rebels are becoming more powerful and coordinated.
Conclusion: A Moment of Opportunity for Syria’s Rebels
The Syria rebel offensive has already proven to be a game-changer. With Iran’s proxies in disarray, and Israel continuing its strikes on Hezbollah, the rebels are seizing an unprecedented opportunity to challenge Assad’s regime and Iran’s influence in Syria.
Whether this offensive will succeed in the long term or fizzle out remains uncertain, but it’s clear that the balance of power in the region is shifting. The Syrian opposition is testing its strength, and with the backing of countries like Turkey, there’s a real possibility that the Assad regime may lose even more ground.
