The Trump trade war has ignited a wave of nationalism in both Mexico and Canada, leading to skyrocketing approval ratings for their leaders. While President Trump’s approval ratings in the U.S. continue to drop, the leaders in these two neighbouring countries are gaining unprecedented levels of support. How did tariffs intended to target Mexico and Canada backfire and shift the political landscape?
In this post, I’ll explore how Trump’s tariffs are driving Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum and Canadian leaders to new political highs, how the tariffs are impacting public opinion, and why these countries are taking a stand against the U.S. trade war.
The Political Impact of Trump’s Tariffs in Canada and Mexico
The Trump trade war has created a political storm, especially for Canada and Mexico. President Trump’s decision to impose hefty tariffs on steel and aluminium exports from these nations has left the U.S., Canada, and Mexico in an economic tug-of-war. However, in a twist, the tariffs have acted as a catalyst, pushing Canadian and Mexican leaders to the forefront of nationalism.
Rising Approval Ratings for Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum is enjoying approval ratings of 85%, the highest in Mexico’s history over the last three decades. According to a poll by El Financiero, this dramatic rise is largely due to her handling of the tariff crisis. Sheinbaum took a firm stance against Trump’s tariff threats and positioned herself as a defender of Mexico’s sovereignty. She’s portrayed herself as a leader who won’t be bullied by the U.S. and has maintained a calm, respectful tone during negotiations, which has resonated well with the Mexican people.
- Approval Rating Soars: 85% of Mexicans support Sheinbaum, with only 15% disapproving, according to a recent survey.
- Nationalism Boosted: Sheinbaum’s leadership has inspired a surge of nationalist pride across Mexico. Her approach shows that strong leadership in the face of external pressure can lead to higher popularity and greater trust from the public.
Canada’s Political Shift: Liberals Surge Ahead
In Canada, the tariffs have had a similar effect, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s political rivals from the Conservative Party losing ground. As the ruling Liberal Party has strengthened its position, it is now leading in national polls for the first time since February 2021, according to Ipsos.
A similar boost in approval ratings is also seen in Mark Carney, the leader of Canada’s ruling party, who has used the Trump tariffs as a way to build national unity. Carney’s support surged late last month, as he effectively countered Trump’s tariff threats, portraying Canada as a nation capable of standing strong against U.S. pressure.
- Liberal Party Leads: The Liberal Party now leads the Conservative Party, 38% to 36%, marking a significant political shift.
- Strong Nationalist Sentiment: Carney, along with other Canadian politicians, has tapped into the growing sense of nationalism in the country. Many Canadians are rallying around their government as they reject Trump’s threats.
Trump’s Trade War: A Catalyst for Nationalism
Trump’s repeated tariff threats have driven a rise in nationalist sentiment across both countries. These leaders have capitalised on this nationalism, positioning themselves as champions of their countries’ sovereignty and independence. Here’s how:
- Mexico: President Sheinbaum has rallied her people around a message of sovereignty. At a rally in Mexico City, Sheinbaum declared, “We can’t give up our sovereignty. Our people cannot be affected by decisions made by foreign governments or hegemonies.”
- Canada: Trudeau’s response to Trump’s tariffs was equally firm. In a speech, Mark Carney, the Liberal Party leader, remarked, “The Americans should make no mistake. In trade, as in hockey, Canada will win.”
This nationalist rhetoric has resonated deeply with the populations of both countries, with Canadians and Mexicans viewing these tariffs as an attack on their national pride and economy.
The Economic Fallout and Political Pushback
The economic impact of Trump’s tariffs is undeniable, but the political ramifications are arguably more profound. Despite the economic pain these tariffs have caused, there’s a noticeable political gain for the leaders in both countries.
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Canada: Following Trump’s threats, Canadian consumers took a stand, boycotting U.S. products, particularly American liquor, which is now off the shelves of many Canadian retailers. This public backlash further solidified the national unity that Canadian leaders have been fostering.
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Mexico: In Mexico, tariffs on goods like steel have prompted the government to explore new trade partnerships, seeking alternatives to U.S. markets. Mexican leaders have called for cooperation and respect, but they have drawn a hard line against U.S. domination.
Mexico’s Strategy: New Trade Partnerships
President Sheinbaum has been careful not to escalate tensions too far, preferring cooperation over confrontation. However, in a statement about Trump’s tariffs, Sheinbaum commented, “Nobody wins with this decision.” As a result, Mexico is actively looking to diversify its trade relations and strengthen ties with countries beyond the U.S., including the EU and China.
Trump’s Approval Drops as Nationalism Soars in Mexico and Canada
While leaders in Mexico and Canada benefit politically from the Trump tariffs, the U.S. President’s approval ratings are heading in the opposite direction. Recent data shows that Trump’s approval has dropped to 45% according to Gallup, a decline from the 61% average of U.S. presidents in the early stages of their terms.
This gap in approval suggests that Trump’s trade war strategy is backfiring domestically. While Mexico and Canada grow stronger politically, Trump faces mounting domestic challenges.
The Future of U.S.-Mexico-Canada Relations
As the Trump tariffs continue to shape public opinion in Mexico and Canada, the long-term effects on U.S. relations with its neighbours will be crucial. Both Canada and Mexico are committed to maintaining their sovereignty, and their defiance of U.S. tariffs may lead to a more assertive and independent approach to foreign policy in the future.
Key Points to Watch:
- Ongoing Trade Negotiations: Will Canada and Mexico continue to push back against U.S. tariffs, or will negotiations lead to a breakthrough?
- Economic Impact: How will these tariffs affect the broader North American economy in the coming months and years?
- Shifting Alliances: As Mexico and Canada strengthen their nationalist stances, could they pivot away from traditional U.S. trade relations to pursue new global alliances?
Conclusion: Nationalism, Trade Wars, and Political Shifts
The Trump trade war has not only caused economic uncertainty but has also sparked a wave of nationalism in Mexico and Canada. The political leaders in these countries are gaining popularity by standing firm against U.S. pressure, turning tariffs into a tool for strengthening national unity. While Trump’s tariffs may be hurting the U.S. economy, they are propelling Mexico and Canada into a new political era, where sovereignty and national pride take centre stage.
For U.S. leaders, the lesson here is clear: trade wars can have unintended consequences, not just for the economy, but for international relationships and domestic political dynamics.
Relevant Links for Further Reading
Photo credit: Novinite
