Where We Are with the US Election: Final Stretch and Latest Polls
With just a week left until the US Election Day, Americans are witnessing one of the tightest presidential races in recent history. Kamala Harris is set to make her closing campaign speech tonight, marking a significant moment in the race that has been nothing short of extraordinary. Meanwhile, Donald Trump plans a series of weekend rallies in traditionally Democratic strongholds like New Mexico and Virginia—a bold move signaling his intention to sway undecided voters in every corner of the nation.
With a whopping $2.8 billion spent, endorsements from figures as varied as Taylor Swift and Hulk Hogan, and two highly scrutinized debates, the stakes have never been higher. Let’s dive into where the race stands, who’s already voted, and what polling data indicates about swing states and the Electoral College.
What the Polls Say: Harris vs. Trump in a Dead Heat
Most national polls suggest a razor-thin margin between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Harris appears to hold a slight edge, but momentum has been shifting towards Trump recently. However, in the US presidential system, the Electoral College decides the winner—not the popular vote. Here’s how things look in key states:
- Swing States Hold the Key: Seven battleground states, including Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada, are where the election could be won or lost. Polling averages show tiny margins in each, within a small margin of error.
- Northern States Leaning Towards Harris: Internal data shows Harris slightly ahead in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—crucial states Trump narrowly won in 2016.
- Trump’s Hopes in the South: The Trump campaign sees potential wins in Pennsylvania and possibly other Sun Belt states, buoyed by polls showing him closing the gap.
Both campaigns are using every strategy in the book, with Harris’s team leaning into messaging that frames Trump as a threat to democracy, especially focused on female voters and abortion rights. The Trump campaign, on the other hand, believes that an expansive battleground operation will energize Republican voters to turn out in full force.
Who’s Already Voted? Early and Postal Voting Trends
Over 43 million ballots have already been cast in early voting or through the postal system, with Democrats typically favouring early voting and Republicans favouring Election Day.
- Early Voting Down Since 2020: This year’s pre-election voting has decreased compared to record numbers seen in 2020, largely due to the pandemic’s impact on voting habits.
- Republicans Encouraging Early Voting: Unlike in 2020, when the Trump campaign discouraged postal voting, this year’s Republican strategy promotes it. This shift is critical as both parties aim to lock in as many votes as possible before Election Day.
Can We Expect a Quick Election Result? What History Tells Us
Historically, election results in the US are called quickly, with final results often clear by the morning after Election Day. However, recent elections have shown delays are possible, especially in close races with high volumes of postal voting.
- Postal Voting Processed Faster: Changes in many states now allow ballot processing to start earlier, expediting vote counting. Half of US states now use machines to scan ballots early, although they refrain from tallying the votes until Election Day.
- Key State Delays Possible: In states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin—which only start processing postal votes on Election Day—the race might not be called until well after polls close.
For the US, where tension has mounted in anticipation, the next week could hold the nation in suspense.
Will Trump Concede? Uncertainty Surrounds Election’s Aftermath
According to a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS, most voters believe Trump would not concede if he lost. A “sizeable minority” of his supporters believe losing candidates are not obligated to concede, sparking concern about the potential for unrest or contested results.
Election Concerns Answered:
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Q: What happens if Trump doesn’t concede?
- A: Concession speeches are not legally required; the election results are certified by each state and by Congress. However, a refusal to concede could lead to prolonged legal battles or even protests.
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Q: How accurate are the polls?
- A: Polls are only a snapshot in time and can be influenced by sampling methods, non-response biases, and late swings in voter preference. After surprises in 2016 and 2020, analysts urge caution.
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Q: What if Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are too close to call?
- A: In this case, the race might hinge on postal ballot counts, which may delay a final result for days or even weeks.
Final Thoughts: What to Expect as Election Day Approaches
The 2024 US Presidential Election is on course to be one of the most polarising and suspenseful in modern history. As both Harris and Trump make their final cases, Americans across the nation will watch closely as polls in swing states like Michigan and Arizona start closing. Whether we see a quick result or a prolonged counting process, this election could well shape the direction of American democracy for years to come.
Keep an eye on those battleground states—they’re set to be the ultimate deciders in what’s been one of the most intense election seasons in living memory.
