The Gaza ceasefire deal, which was supposed to mark the beginning of peace, now stands on shaky ground. With each passing day, Palestinians and Israelis remain in limbo as talks drag on. The initial truce, agreed upon after 15 months of war, expired without resolution, leaving negotiators scrambling to determine the next steps.
Key players, from the Trump administration to Israel, Hamas, and the Arab world, are involved in complex negotiations on multiple tracks. Here’s an overview of where the Gaza ceasefire stands and what’s next in this high-stakes diplomatic process.
The State of the Gaza Ceasefire: Current Negotiations
In mid-January, after months of devastating conflict, Israel and Hamas agreed to a temporary ceasefire. The deal was meant to serve as a precursor to a more comprehensive truce. However, even as the truce began, both sides knew the hard work lay ahead.
Key Elements of the January Ceasefire:
- Hostage exchange: Israel agreed to release Palestinian prisoners in exchange for hostages held by Hamas.
- Humanitarian aid: The agreement stipulated that aid would flow into Gaza to alleviate the suffering of Palestinians, who have been grappling with hunger and devastation.
- Temporary truce: The initial phase was designed to build momentum toward a permanent ceasefire.
However, as the first phase expired last weekend, the progress toward a long-term resolution remained unclear. Qatar and Egypt, who have played mediation roles, have failed to bring about significant breakthroughs.
The Challenge of Negotiating Peace: Israel and Hamas’ Stalemate
One of the key challenges in these talks is the Israel-Hamas dynamic. While both sides agreed to a temporary ceasefire in January, they are not directly negotiating with each other. Instead, mediators, including Qatar and Egypt, have facilitated talks, but the situation remains precarious.
After the expiration of the first phase of the ceasefire, Israel closed crossings into Gaza, halting the delivery of crucial aid. This move drew condemnation from Qatar, who labelled the decision as a breach of the ceasefire terms, particularly the provision that 600 trucks of food and essential goods should enter Gaza each day.
This move has raised concerns about the future of the ceasefire and has made it more difficult for negotiators to build momentum for a comprehensive truce.
The Trump Administration’s Role: Mixed Signals and Alternative Plans
The Trump administration has thrown a wrench into the negotiations, offering conflicting signals about the path forward. While the U.S. has expressed hope for reaching the second phase of the ceasefire, the administration’s actions seem to contradict this goal.
New Proposal by Steve Witkoff:
Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s Prime Minister, has shown willingness to engage with a new proposal pushed by Steve Witkoff, President Trump’s Middle East envoy. This new proposal, however, diverges significantly from the original terms of the January ceasefire.
Under Witkoff’s plan:
- Immediate hostage release: Israel would receive half of the remaining hostages in exchange for an additional 50-day ceasefire.
- Further negotiations: Talks would continue during this period, focusing on achieving a permanent ceasefire.
This deal would effectively secure more hostages without giving in to Hamas’s core demands, which include the full implementation of the original January deal.
However, Hamas has already rejected this proposal, calling for the full execution of the January deal before agreeing to any further negotiations.
Trump’s Controversial Actions: Pushing for Displacement and Ultimatums
In addition to pushing for changes in the ceasefire deal, Donald Trump has made controversial proposals, including:
- Displacement of Gaza’s residents: Trump has suggested the permanent displacement of Palestinians in Gaza, a move that has sparked outrage in the region.
- Ultimatum to Hamas: On social media, Trump issued a “last warning” to Hamas, demanding that they immediately release all hostages, threatening severe consequences if they failed to comply.
Trump’s language has only added tension to the situation. Hamas quickly responded, stating that such threats only complicate matters, accusing the U.S. of undermining negotiations.
U.S. Talks with Hamas: A Break from Tradition
The Trump administration’s approach has diverged from long-standing U.S. policy, which typically avoided direct engagement with Hamas. Over the past week, however, U.S. officials have held direct meetings with Hamas, aimed at securing the release of American hostages captured during the October 2023 attack on Israel.
This shift marks a significant departure from the past and raises questions about future U.S. involvement in negotiations. Some have criticised this approach, arguing that engaging with Hamas undermines the international community’s efforts to isolate the group. Others point out that the previous policy of non-engagement has failed to yield results.
Key Focus of Talks:
- The release of Edan Alexander, the only American-Israeli hostage still alive.
- Securing the bodies of four other U.S.-Israeli dual citizens who were captured in the October 2023 attack.
In one of the more emotional moments of the talks, the father of Itay Chen, a 19-year-old American-Israeli soldier presumed killed during the attack, expressed his hope that U.S. involvement could help bring his son home.
Where Do We Go from Here? Uncertain Future for the Gaza Ceasefire
As of now, the path forward for the Gaza ceasefire remains uncertain. The situation is fraught with complications, and negotiators are dealing with multiple, often conflicting, agendas.
Key players, including Israel, Hamas, and the U.S., all seem to be playing different games, making it difficult to predict whether a permanent ceasefire will be reached.
For now, Palestinians and Israelis alike remain in a state of limbo, awaiting the next steps in what has become one of the most complex diplomatic processes of our time.
Photo credit: BBC
