Since the onset of the war in Gaza, various proposals have emerged from global leaders and organisations, each claiming to have the best solution for a postwar Gaza. Yet, as the war continues, none of these plans seem to offer a viable or acceptable outcome for all parties involved. From President Trump’s controversial plan of expelling Gaza’s residents to various proposals put forward by regional powers like Egypt and Saudi Arabia, the solutions have ranged from extreme to impractical.
Despite months of negotiations, the question remains: what is the best solution for Gaza’s future? And why have no proposals been able to gain consensus from key players like Israel, Hamas, and the Arab nations involved?
The Plan Variations: Who Wants What?
Let’s break down the proposals that have been put on the table for postwar Gaza, and explore why they’ve been unable to create a lasting solution.
1. Trump’s Plan: Expulsion and Control
President Trump’s controversial plan would see the United States govern Gaza and expel its residents. This solution satisfies many Israelis who want a Hamas-free Gaza, but it’s completely unacceptable to Hamas and violates international law in the eyes of critics. Expelling residents would essentially amount to ethnic cleansing, a war crime according to international law.
2. The Arab Plan: Technocratic Government under Palestinian Control
The Arab plan offers a different approach, proposing that Gaza be run by Palestinian technocrats within a broader Palestinian state. This plan envisions the creation of a Palestinian government that would rule Gaza while keeping the population intact. However, this proposal raises two significant issues:
- Hamas’s role: It is unclear how Hamas would be removed from power, a key demand of Israel.
- Palestinian statehood: The proposal is conditional on the creation of a Palestinian state, a concept most Israelis vehemently oppose.
3. Israeli Proposals: Partial Cession or Full Occupation
Israel has put forward two potential solutions:
- One where Israel cedes control over parts of Gaza but still prevents the establishment of a fully sovereign Palestinian state.
- Another where Israel occupies all of Gaza entirely, keeping tight control over the territory.
Neither of these plans satisfies Hamas nor the broader Arab world, and both are likely to intensify hostilities rather than bring peace.
The Core Issue: Hamas vs Israel
At the heart of all these proposals is the conflict between Israel and Hamas, which continues to be a stumbling block for any peace agreement. Israel wants a Hamas-free Gaza, but Hamas wants to retain its military wing and continue its resistance against Israel.
This fundamental difference has led to an impasse in peace talks. No plan can succeed unless it addresses this core issue.
The Risks of a Renewed War
As the cease-fire agreed upon in January continues to hold, there’s a growing sense that peace may be fleeting. The truce was meant to last only six weeks, which has already passed. Without an agreement on Gaza’s future, the risks of renewed conflict are high.
The Hostage Dilemma
Both sides are using hostages as leverage. Hamas is demanding Israeli acceptance of a postwar plan before releasing more hostages, while Israel is insisting on the release of hostages without any commitments on Gaza’s future.
This tension has caused both sides to dig in their heels, creating a situation where neither can move forward without losing face.
Israel’s Calculus: Occupation or Confrontation?
With the hostage crisis still unresolved, Israel is faced with two undesirable options:
- Accept Hamas’s presence in Gaza, which would mean a long-term military standoff and an inability to end the threat of rocket attacks.
- Re-engage in war, either to force Hamas into submission or to occupy Gaza, which could lead to a costly war of attrition that drags on for years.
The Global Role: Arab Nations and International Law
In addition to the Israeli and Hamas positions, Arab nations like Egypt and Saudi Arabia also have a vested interest in Gaza’s future. Both countries have proposed solutions but face their own constraints:
- Egypt fears a power vacuum in Gaza could spill over into its own territory.
- Saudi Arabia seeks a solution that supports Palestinian self-determination but must balance this with its diplomatic relations with Israel and the West.
International law also plays a critical role. The forced expulsion of people, as suggested in Trump’s plan, would be a war crime, and thus the international community cannot support such an approach. Moreover, the involvement of Arab countries is crucial for financing and stabilising Gaza postwar, but their role will depend on whether Hamas remains in power.
Israel’s Strategy: The Path Forward
Israel’s long-term strategy in Gaza is fraught with challenges. For now, it seems like Israel’s path could lead to full occupation. According to Ofer Shelah, a former lawmaker, Israel may find itself “responsible for the fate of two million people,” which could quickly become a military quagmire. A military occupation would drag on indefinitely, leading to greater international isolation and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza.
But Israel may feel it has no choice. Hamas continues to pose a direct threat, and without a clear solution, Israel’s hand may be forced back to war.
Conclusion: What Lies Ahead for Gaza?
As negotiations continue, the situation remains volatile. Despite the flurry of diplomatic proposals, there is still no clear path forward that satisfies all parties involved. The impasse means that Gaza’s future remains uncertain, and the risk of renewed conflict grows by the day.
The key to any future solution will be reaching a compromise that both Israel and Hamas can accept, but given the deep divisions, this remains an elusive goal. Until then, the people of Gaza continue to suffer under the uncertainty of war, and the world watches closely, hoping for a resolution that seems farther away than ever.
Relevant links for further reading:
- Middle East Peace Process Overview
- Hamas and Israel Conflict History
- The Future of Gaza
- International Law and War Crimes
- Israeli-Palestinian Conflict: Key Points
Photo credit: Human Rights Watch
