The threat of nuclear conflict has escalated to its highest level since the Cold War’s end. As Russia escalates nuclear threats amid the Ukraine conflict, and North Korea and Iran advance their nuclear capabilities, the global nuclear order faces unprecedented challenges. Here’s why safeguarding nuclear norms is crucial and how we can prevent further deterioration.
Understanding the Crumbling Nuclear Order
Nuclear Norms: These are the established rules and standards that govern the use, testing, and proliferation of nuclear weapons. Key treaties like the 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the 1997 Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) have historically helped maintain these norms.
Current Threats:
- Russia’s Threats: Russia’s nuclear posturing and aggressive drills heighten global tensions.
- North Korea’s Advances: North Korea’s nuclear tests and continued expansion pose direct threats.
- Iran’s Pursuit: Iran’s nuclear ambitions, despite international agreements, contribute to global insecurity.
- Potential U.S. Testing: Former U.S. national security adviser Robert O’Brien hinted at a possible return to nuclear testing under a second Trump term.
The Erosion of Nuclear Norms
The current global security environment reveals the fragility of established nuclear norms. Here’s how the erosion of these norms poses risks:
1. Breakdown of the Nuclear Taboo:
- Historical Context: Since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the nuclear taboo has been a key deterrent against using nuclear weapons.
- Current Challenges: Recent threats and actions from major powers undermine this taboo, making nuclear conflict more plausible.
2. Challenges to the CTBT:
- Importance of the CTBT: This treaty aims to ban all nuclear explosions. Despite broad support, it has not yet entered into force due to non-ratification by key states.
- Recent Violations: North Korea’s 2017 thermonuclear test and ongoing threats highlight the weaknesses in enforcing this norm.
3. Impacts of Nuclear Testing:
- Humanitarian and Environmental Effects: Historical tests, such as the 1954 Bikini Atoll test, resulted in devastating impacts. Modern testing could have even more catastrophic consequences.
The Role of Autocratic States in Norm Contestation
Autocratic Collaboration:
- China, Russia, North Korea, Iran: These countries are increasingly working together to challenge the international order. Their actions often undermine nuclear norms to achieve strategic and regional goals.
Examples:
- China: Expanding its nuclear arsenal while opposing arms control efforts.
- Russia: Threatening nuclear use in conflicts and signalling possible resumption of nuclear testing.
- North Korea: Continuing nuclear tests and missile development despite international sanctions.
- Iran: Pursuing nuclear technology and components, raising concerns about its adherence to non-proliferation norms.
Strategies to Reinforce Nuclear Norms
1. Strengthen International Partnerships:
- Global South Engagement: Countries like Mexico are vocal about nuclear threats. The U.S. should build alliances with such nations to reinforce nuclear norms.
- Regional Dialogue: Engage with countries like India to address regional concerns and curb aggressive nuclear posturing.
2. Support Existing Alliances:
- NATO and Indo-Pacific: Strengthen ties with NATO allies and Indo-Pacific partners to maintain a united front on nuclear norms.
- Dual-Track Approach: Balance deterrence with disarmament efforts. For instance, U.S. nuclear modernization should be coupled with innovative risk reduction strategies.
3. Facilitate Dialogue:
- Japan’s Role: As the only nation to have experienced nuclear warfare, Japan could mediate between nuclear-armed and non-nuclear states to promote dialogue and norm preservation.
Conclusion
The erosion of nuclear norms poses a severe threat to global stability. To address this, the international community must work together to reinforce existing treaties, foster dialogue, and strengthen alliances. The United States, alongside its global partners, must lead efforts to uphold and revitalise the nuclear order, ensuring that the norms against nuclear testing, proliferation, and use remain robust in the face of emerging threats.
