As we edge closer to the 2024 election, one question looms large: Can Donald Trump expand his base? The answer, it seems, is a definitive yes. The former president has made significant inroads with key voting demographics, even as his traditional stronghold—White voters—remains largely unchanged.
Trump’s growing support is particularly evident among Hispanic voters, younger generations, and voters without a college degree. But it’s not just the new voters that are shaping his campaign; long-standing trends—such as overwhelming support from White men and women—continue to play a major role.
In this post, we’ll dive deep into the 2024 exit polling data to explore the evolving landscape of Trump’s voter base, the most notable shifts in key demographics, and what these trends could mean for his path to the White House.
Trump’s Growing Appeal Among Hispanic Voters
One of the most striking trends in the 2024 election is the shift in support from Hispanic men toward Trump. For years, Hispanic voters, particularly men, have leaned heavily Democratic. However, in this year’s election, Hispanic men backed Trump by a 12-point margin, reversing the trend of the last several elections where they preferred Democrats by a wide margin of more than 20 points.
This increase is the largest recorded for Hispanic men in any presidential election since exit polling began, and if this support holds, it would represent the highest Republican share of Hispanic voters since Ronald Reagan’s landslide victory in 1984.
- Hispanic Women: Although Hispanic women didn’t shift as dramatically toward Trump, their support still saw a reduction in the margin by which they favoured Democratic candidates. In 2020, Biden carried Hispanic women by 39 points, whereas this year, Kamala Harris only secured a 22-point advantage.
- If Trump continues to gain traction with Hispanic voters, particularly men, this could reshape the Latino vote in future elections, historically a key demographic for Democrats.
Trump Wins More Male and Female Voters in 2024
While Trump has consistently won male voters in past elections, his margin of victory among men in 2024 has widened significantly. Trump garnered 13% more male voters in this year’s election compared to 2020, a noticeable increase from the previous 8-point margin.
But what about women? Historically, women tend to favour Democratic candidates, and 2024 is no different. However, the margin by which Harris won among women was 7 points narrower than in 2020, when Biden secured a record-breaking 15-point margin among female voters.
This shift represents an important trend towards the Republican Party among women, especially as issues such as inflation, economic security, and national safety are likely to influence the electorate’s views.
Younger Voters Are Slowly Moving Toward Trump
While young voters (under 30) still overwhelmingly supported Harris, this year’s election saw a 13-point shift toward Trump since 2020. This is the weakest Democratic showing among younger voters since John Kerry’s 9-point margin in 2004.
In particular, voters aged 45-64 also gravitated toward Trump, with the group supporting him by 10 points—a clear shift from the 2020 election where their vote was split more evenly between Trump and Biden. This trend suggests a growing dissatisfaction with the Democratic Party, particularly among moderate to older voters who may feel disconnected from more progressive stances on social issues.
- Voters over 65 showed a slight trend in support for Harris, though the divide was more evenly split, especially compared to past elections where older voters overwhelmingly supported Republicans.
Voters Without College Degrees Are Solidly Behind Trump
The education gap in American politics has widened significantly in recent years, and it is becoming increasingly clear that voters without a college degree are crucial to understanding Trump’s growing appeal.
Trump won 14% more support from voters without a college degree compared to 2020, marking the largest margin for any Republican since 1984. This demographic has now become a cornerstone of the Republican coalition.
- This trend mirrors past victories, such as Ronald Reagan’s 1984 landslide, which saw Republicans win a similar margin among non-college-educated voters.
- The shift highlights a deepening divide between college-educated voters (who favoured Harris by 13 points this year) and those without a degree. This education gap has reshaped the way elections are fought and won in modern America.
Catholics and Religious Groups Shift Toward Trump
The Catholic vote is another key demographic that saw a dramatic shift towards Trump in 2024. After voting for Biden in 2020, Catholic voters now support Trump by 18 points, marking the largest shift among Catholics since polling began in 1972.
This represents a sharp swing, particularly in light of the religious divides among different Christian groups. White evangelical Protestants remain strong Trump supporters, but Black Protestants and other Christians continue to lean towards Harris.
- Even voters without religious affiliation have leaned more towards Harris, showing a 45-point margin, up from Biden’s 34-point advantage in 2020.
Independents Swing Toward Trump in 2024
One of the most important and unpredictable voter groups are independents, who often determine the outcome of a presidential race. In 2024, independent voters swung toward Trump by 10 percentage points, with Harris still holding onto a slight advantage of three points.
This shift among independents is particularly significant given the growing number of independent voters—they made up 34% of the electorate in 2024, the largest share in exit polls since 1972. The rise of independents is important because it signals a larger trend of political discontent, as more Americans reject traditional party lines.
Conclusion: Trump’s Growing Base and What It Means for 2024
The 2024 election has shown that Donald Trump’s base is evolving. While he retains strong support from White voters, he has made significant inroads among Hispanic voters, younger generations, and voters without a college degree. These shifts are important indicators that Trump’s political appeal is broadening—but they also suggest the rise of new fault lines in American politics, particularly along educational and racial lines.
As the election season heats up, it will be crucial for both Republicans and Democrats to address these demographic changes. For Trump, it’s clear: his path to victory in 2024 will depend on whether he can maintain and expand his appeal to these newly supportive groups.
